That’s the sentiment and the primary question.
The crypto markets have been terrible in return for 2024, through which the general consensus is whether a big crash is occurring.
It discussed in this latest video:
youtube.com/watch?v=moaw0C…
My short answer to this question is basically a hard NO. It’s also a question of what you would define as a potential crash. Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $54,000, a correction of 26% since the recent all-time high.
That’s a regular correction and very normal for the current state of the markets. However, when we’re looking at some other data points, we could define why the current primary question is surrounded by the ‘Bitcoin Crash’ topic. The fear & greed index for crypto has reached a number of 22.
The last time we had these data points for the fear & greed index was during the period of the FTX collapse, in November ‘22. To be honest, there were some legitimate reasons to question the future of crypto during that period, as basically the entire year was a disaster and the price of Bitcoin has hit new cycle lows.
Right now, we’re at $54,000, only 25% shy of a new all-time high, in a pro-crypto climate from macroeconomic perspectives, and the sentiment has flipped to these negative numbers, yet again.
This reminds me of a lot of things, hence why I’ve questioned myself whether another Bitcoin crash is coming. Of course, there’s a yes and a no to every story as a potential outcome. A yes is definitely possible for the markets if Bitcoin continues to ask as a risk-on asset and panic is occurring on the macro-economic (or US) playing field. I’m quite sure about that.
However, if we look at the most important variables, then I think we’re actually on the edge of having the ‘final’ run on equity bull markets, which is also the period where the adoption of crypto is going to go vertical in third-world countries and we’re going to experience the ‘Dot.com’ type of bubble for crypto, after which the Great Depression version 2.0 is likely to expand.
I don’t fancy valuing assets against the U.S. Dollar, it doesn’t make that much sense to me. The question then arises: is it copying the four-year cycle, yes or no? Well, it might actually be the case, as we’re consolidating after the Bitcoin halving has been taking place, however, the markets have been making a new all-time high as there’s been a tremendous increase in influx in Bitcoin through the ETF earlier this year.
However, if you’re looking at different dynamics rather than solely the U.S. Dollar, then you conclude that there’s a case of copying/pasting previous cycles as inflation-adjusted, Bitcoin hasn’t made any new all-time high as of yet.
And, I don’t know, but my view is that everyone is focused on a certain conclusion and everybody draws the same conclusions, then I’m quite the opposite. In that regard, I don’t think that we’re going to be witnessing a big Bitcoin crash, honestly, the odds of having a big crash on the equity markets are substantially larger (and yes, that could drag Bitcoin down).
The same thesis I do have about the four-year cycle. It seems like almost all participants of the crypto markets are eager to cash out in Q3/Q4 2025. What if that’s not happening? What if the four-year cycle is completely bullshit and we should be looking at the liquidity cycle? In that aspect, we might be copying/pasting the previous years.
This means: run upwards until March/April 2025, then a period of consolidation/correction and another run upwards going into 2026 where we peak somewhere in 2026, depending on the liquidity and macro-economic playing field in that period. Given the impact of the ETF, I also assume that we’re expecting to go higher than what everyone expects.
At the bear market low, people assume that we’re going to go way lower than the actual peak of a bull market does, it’s always like that. Once we’re at the peak of the bull market, people overestimate where the correction will land, where the markets are usually going way deeper than those estimates.
Anyways, if the liquidity cycle starts to fire up again, given the fact that QE is likely going to happen to combat a weaker economy and labor markets, it also seems likely that Bitcoin will surge substantially. Given that a weaker economy is also driving people out of the traditional economic system, I suspect that we’re going to have a lot of interest going into DeFi.
That’s why I put a lot of emphasis on valuing BTC against the SPX, as you can see in my chart. If you look at the chart, then you can easily see that we’re copying/pasting the previous cycle in 2019-2020 where an external factor of COVID accelerated the bull cycle quite quickly. Not through the halving, no, but through external liquidity being added in the markets. A recession or weaker economy can be another argument for a bull cycle.
The 2019-2021 got to an abrupt end as QT and rate hikes started to happen to combat inflation, if COVID stayed and liquidity continued to be added to the markets, without any rate hikes, we likely would have been going higher. That’s also why the previous cycle went super steep and volatile. This cycle is relatively more organic, as there’s no clear Black Swan taking place.
If we look at the chart, then the conclusion is that we’re down 35% from the ATH against the S&P, that we’ve not seen any new ATH in this cycle at all, and that we’re, therefore, copy/pasting the previous cycle entirely. We can also see that there’s been a significant correction taking place on the markets, which is likely coming to an end, just like the correction in 2019 landed at $6K, we’re likely landing at $45-50K on Bitcoin.
From that perspective, with the upcoming rate cuts from the FED the weakening economy, and the global liquidity being increased in China, it seems almost inevitable that we’re actually at the edge of the biggest bull cycle ever.
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The Volatile Nature of Bitcoin: Another Major Crash Shakes the Market
Bitcoin, often hailed as the leading cryptocurrency, is no stranger to dramatic price fluctuations. This morning, the cryptocurrency experienced a significant drop, leaving investors on edge. The value of Bitcoin plummeted to $49,000, sparking concern worldwide. What triggered this sudden downturn? Let’s delve into the factors behind the crash and explore what the future may hold for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Recent Trends: Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Ride
In recent weeks, Bitcoin has been on a turbulent journey, with prices swinging rapidly. From record highs to sharp declines, the market has been incredibly unstable, keeping both novice and seasoned investors on their toes. Bitcoin’s volatility isn’t new; since its inception, it has experienced numerous peaks and troughs. This unpredictability can be attributed to several factors, including market speculation, regulatory developments, and technological advancements.
Key Factors Contributing to Today’s Decline
One of the primary reasons for today’s drop is regulatory uncertainty. Governments around the world are grappling with how to regulate cryptocurrencies. Recent announcements about potential restrictions in major markets have unnerved investors, leading to a sell-off.
Market manipulation is another critical factor contributing to the crash. Large holders of Bitcoin, often referred to as “whales,” have the power to influence the market significantly by executing massive trades. Their actions can instill fear, creating a domino effect that drives prices down.
Technological issues within the Bitcoin network can also cause market instability. For instance, delays in transaction processing or security vulnerabilities can erode investor confidence, leading to a market downturn.
Broader economic factors, such as inflation concerns or shifts in monetary policy, can also impact the crypto market. When traditional markets face turmoil, investors may liquidate their crypto assets to cover losses elsewhere, further driving down cryptocurrency prices.
Where Does the Money Go When Crypto Crashes?
Market capitalization, or market cap, is a crucial concept in understanding where money goes during a crash. It represents the total value of all coins in circulation. When prices fall, the market cap decreases, but this doesn’t mean the money vanishes.
In a financial crisis, the value of assets may decline, but the actual money doesn’t disappear. Instead, it might be redirected into other investments or held by those who sold early.
During a crash, some funds may flow into more stable assets like stablecoins or fiat currencies. Others may shift their investments to other cryptocurrencies they perceive as safer or more promising. Essentially, the money circulates within the financial system in search of stability.
What Causes Crypto Crashes?
Economic uncertainty is a significant driver of cryptocurrency crashes. Factors like political instability, changes in economic policy, and global financial crises can erode confidence in the market, leading to sell-offs.
Investor sentiment also plays a vital role in the cryptocurrency market. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (often referred to as FUD) can spread rapidly, triggering panic selling. Social media, news outlets, and influential figures can all shape investor sentiment, contributing to market volatility.
Security breaches, such as hacks of wallets or exchanges, can also spark a market crash. When investors lose funds due to security breaches, trust in the market diminishes, leading to a sell-off and subsequent price decline.
Will Crypto Bounce Back?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have a history of rebounding after crashes. By examining past recoveries, we can gain insights into the potential for future recovery. Previous downturns have often been followed by periods of consolidation and growth, demonstrating the market’s resilience.
Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term trend has been upward. Long-term holders, or “HODLers,” have reaped significant gains over time. This suggests that patience and a long-term perspective can be rewarding. Additionally, advancements in blockchain technology and improved scalability could drive future growth. Innovations that enhance the value and security of cryptocurrencies will attract more investors and bolster market confidence.
Institutional adoption is another crucial factor. As more institutions embrace cryptocurrencies, either by investing in them or integrating blockchain technologies, the market could see substantial growth. Moreover, institutional involvement can bring stability and reduce volatility.
Today’s drop in Bitcoin’s value to $49,000 is a result of a combination of technological issues, market manipulation, and external economic factors. While the decline has caused concern, understanding the movement of money and the reasons behind crashes provides valuable perspective. History suggests that the cryptocurrency market is likely to recover, fueled by technological advancements and institutional adoption. As always, investors should stay informed, diversify their portfolios, and maintain a long-term view.
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Crypto Land is a neutral marketing and educational platform and does not offer financial advice. Any content provided by Crypto Land should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation. Crypto Land is not liable for any losses incurred during trading or investing.
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