🚨 The Fed's rate cut trajectory is affected by Trump's policies, and the stock market may rise at the end of 2024? 📉➡️📈
IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong pointed out in his latest report that the Fed's future rate cut path may be deeply affected by Trump's policies. Although Trump's remarks on tariffs sound radical at first, the extent of policy implementation is still uncertain, which makes the Fed's rate cut decision more complicated.
🔍 Main points:
Rate cut cycle: Yeap believes that the Fed may start a "shallow" rate cut cycle, which means that the market may not usher in a large-scale rate cut immediately, but it also brings short-term support to the stock market. Stock market expectations: With the end of the Fed meeting and the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged as expected, the US stock market may gradually rise in the last few weeks of 2024. But he also warned that without further catalysts, it would be difficult for the stock market to break new record highs.
📊 Impact on the crypto market:
Interest rates and market sentiment: Rate cuts tend to help stimulate investment in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. But the Fed's "mild rate cuts" may not quickly trigger large-scale capital inflows into the crypto market. Uncertainty of Trump’s policies: Trump’s policies remain unclear, which may cause the market to remain on the sidelines in the coming months, especially for the demand for safe-haven assets such as stablecoins and Bitcoin.
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😢

Alvin Liew, senior economist at UOB, pointed out in his latest report that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 75 basis points next year. He mentioned that although it was not surprising that the Fed hinted that it might slow down the pace of easing in the future, the market's reaction to the reduction in the rate cut was beyond expectations. UOB analysis believes that the adjustment of interest rate cut expectations reflects the expectation of increased inflationary pressure caused by the trade tariff policy that may be implemented after the Trump administration takes office.
Liew further stated that UOB expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in 2024 and continue until early 2025 until the policy direction of the Trump administration becomes clearer. Based on this expectation, the market may need to be sensitive to economic and policy changes in the coming months, especially in trade policy and inflationary pressures.
This expectation is crucial for financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector, especially in the context of the increasingly complex interaction between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market liquidity, interest rate cuts and changes in economic policies may have a profound impact on risky assets.
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