🔶 Response rates for key labor market surveys have declined to near-historic lows, raising concerns about the reliability of the data.
🔶 The non-farm payrolls survey response rate has dropped from ~63% in 2012 to ~43% in 2024.
🔶 The current population survey, which calculates the unemployment rate, fell from ~90% to ~70% over the same period.
🔶 Job openings survey response rates have also plummeted to ~33%, down from ~65% just 12 years ago.
🔶 The BLS initially releases data based on a smaller share of responses, leading to massive downward revisions as more data is collected.
Something seems off with how labor market data is being reported.
#USEconomy #Unemployment #CPI_BTC_Watch #JobData

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium marked a potential turning point in the ongoing fight against inflation. As the dust settles from the pandemic's economic upheaval, Powell's remarks suggest a new chapter in monetary policy. Let's dive into the core messages and their implications.
Economic Landscape: Finding Balance
Powell painted a picture of an economy steadily regaining its footing. Supply chain snarls, once a major headache, have largely untangled. Perhaps most notably, the white-hot labor market that characterized the post-pandemic boom is showing signs of cooling – without tipping into crisis territory.
Inflation: Progress, but Vigilance Required
The Fed's primary target – inflation – appears to be inching closer to the desired 2% mark. Over the past year, we've seen a 2.5% increase, a far cry from the alarming spikes of recent memory. However, Powell made it clear that the Fed isn't declaring victory just yet. The specter of inflation remains, and the central bank stands ready to act if needed.
Labor Market: From Pressure Cooker to Pressure Release
In what might be the speech's most significant revelation, Powell suggested that the labor market is no longer a major inflationary concern. This marks a substantial shift from previous assessments. The unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.3%, but without the mass layoffs that often accompany such changes. This "controlled cooldown" could give the Fed more breathing room in its policy decisions.
Policy Approach: Flexibility is Key
Gone are the days of aggressive rate hikes. Powell's tone suggests a more nuanced, wait-and-see approach. The current policy stance allows for quick pivots should economic conditions suddenly shift. It's a balancing act between maintaining progress on inflation and avoiding unnecessary economic pain.
Lessons Learned: The Pandemic's Policy Legacy
Powell didn't shy away from addressing past missteps. The initial view of pandemic-era inflation as "transitory" was abandoned by mid-2021, leading to a more forceful policy response. This course correction, while painful, seems to have paid dividends in bringing inflation down from its 2022 peak.
The Power of Expectations
A recurring theme in Powell's speech was the crucial role of public confidence. By keeping inflation expectations anchored, the Fed has maintained credibility in its 2% target. This psychological factor shouldn't be underestimated in the broader inflation battle.
Looking Ahead: Cautious Optimism
While Powell's overall message was one of progress, he was careful to temper it with continued vigilance. The Fed's work isn't done, but the tools at its disposal – and the economic landscape itself – have evolved.
As we process Powell's words, it's clear that we're entering a new phase in monetary policy. The brute force approach of rapid rate hikes may be behind us, replaced by a more delicate balancing act. For consumers, businesses, and investors alike, this shift could herald a period of greater stability – albeit one where the Fed keeps a watchful eye on the horizon.
What are your thoughts on Powell's speech?
Do you think we've truly turned a corner in the inflation fight, or are there still stormy seas ahead?
Share your views in the comments below!💬

#Fed #JeromePowell #Powell #USEconomy #JacksonHole