Overview:
Bitcoin's price
#movement on the
#annual timeframe demonstrates a clear formation of waves, reflecting market dynamics and investor behavior. The analysis covers the primary wave structures and transitions, as well as the evolution of analytical perspectives based on price actions.
Detailed Analysis:
Major Wave 1 (2009 - 2017):
The first major wave consists of five distinct sub-waves:
Sub-Wave 1: Rise from $0 to $30.Sub-Wave 2: Correction to $4.Sub-Wave 3: Strong rally to $1,163.Sub-Wave 4: Correction to $152.Sub-Wave 5: Extension to $19,666.
Major Wave 2 (2018):
A sharp correction to $3,122, representing the second major wave. This wave is consistent across all scenarios, marking the end of the first cycle and the beginning of the next major trend.
Old Perspective (2019 - 2021):
The rise from $3,122 to $69,000 was considered the third major wave.The correction to approximately $15,000 was classified as the fourth major wave.The expected termination near $75,000–$80,000 was projected to be the fifth major wave, respecting the Termination Channel.
Analytical Shift:
The breakout above $80,000 invalidated the old perspective, requiring a reevaluation. The updated
#analysis reclassifies the movements within Major Wave 3 as:
Updated Major Wave 3 (2019 - 2024):
Sub-Wave 1: A rise from $3,122 to $69,000.Sub-Wave 2: Correction to $15,974.Sub-Wave 3: Current rally to $108,000, with potential extension towards $125,000.
The Termination Channel has now evolved into a Base Channel, providing support for future corrections instead of acting as resistance.
Future Projections:
Sub-Wave 4: A potential correction aligning with the Base Channel.Sub-Wave 5: A rally to conclude Major Wave 3, potentially exceeding $125,000.
Key Failure Points:
Price dropping below $69,000 would indicate weakening
#bullish momentum.Price falling under $46,000 would signify a potential market reversal, undermining the long-term bullish structure. Such a drop would also validate the old perspective, suggesting that Bitcoin's bullish cycle concluded at levels between $108,000 and $125,000.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin's wave structure showcases a clear roadmap of market dynamics. The transition from the Termination Channel to the Base Channel underscores the evolving nature of market analysis. Monitoring price action within these channels and the identified support levels is essential for making informed trading decisions. This analysis highlights key opportunities for growth while recognizing critical failure points to manage risk effectively.
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