Inflation

Edward Jones Senior Strategist Angelo Kourkafas tells Odaily he expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to keep a hawkish tone at next Thursday’s policy briefing.
Powell will likely reinforce the Fed’s commitment to taming inflation and signal that rate decisions remain free from White House influence.
Investors should watch for hints on future rate moves and balance sheet runoff plans.
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#EconomicAlert #Inflation
The Economy Hits a Rough Patch: What's Really Going On?
The latest check-in from the Fed paints a picture of an economy that's starting to sweat. After months of surprising strength, businesses are getting nervous - and it's not hard to see why. Between stubbornly high prices and the return of tariff talk, the road ahead is looking bumpier.
The Tariff Effect
Remember when tariffs were big news a few years back? They're back on the radar, and businesses aren't happy about it. Companies across multiple industries are seeing their costs creep up, and while some can pass those increases to customers, others - especially restaurants, retailers, and other consumer businesses - are getting squeezed. It's getting harder to raise prices when shoppers are already feeling the pinch.
The Jobs Market Cool-Down
Here's something we haven't seen in a while: companies hitting pause on hiring. Not everywhere, and not dramatically, but enough to notice. The "help wanted" signs might not be coming down, but they're not multiplying as fast either. This is particularly true for businesses that depend on everyday consumers opening their wallets.
The Fed's Tightrope Walk
The central bank's in a tough spot. Prices are still rising faster than they'd like, but now the economy's showing signs of fatigue. It's like trying to balance a canoe - lean too far one way (keep rates high), and you risk tipping the economy into a slump. Lean too far the other (cut rates), and inflation could come roaring back.
What to Watch Next
The next few months will tell us whether this is just a summer storm or the start of rougher weather. Keep an eye on:
- Your neighborhood stores - Are they busy or looking empty?
- Job listings - Are companies still hiring like crazy?
- The Fed's next move - Will they cut rates to give the economy a boost?
The bottom line? The economy's not in trouble, but it's definitely not smooth sailing ahead. Businesses and consumers alike might want to buckle up.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - Monday:
Effect: This report provides insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. A higher than expected reading generally boosts market sentiment, indicating economic growth, while a lower reading can dampen investor confidence and negatively affect the market.
JOLTS Job Openings - Tuesday:

Effect: This report measures job vacancies in the U.S. economy. Higher job openings suggest a strong labor market, which can be positive for the stock market. However, if it signals wage inflation, it could lead to concerns about potential #interestrate hikes.
CrowdStrike ($CRWD) Earnings - Tuesday:

Effect: As a prominent cybersecurity company, CrowdStrike’s earnings can influence the tech sector. Strong earnings can boost not only CrowdStrike’s stock but also investor confidence in the tech industry, while poor results can have the opposite effect.
ADP Payrolls - Wednesday:

Effect: This report provides an early look at employment data ahead of the official jobs report. Strong payroll growth can be positive for markets, reflecting economic strength, but may also raise concerns about inflation and potential interest rate hikes.
ISM Services PMI - Wednesday:

Effect: This report is crucial for assessing the health of the service sector. A higher reading can indicate robust economic activity, boosting market confidence. Conversely, a lower reading can signal economic slowdown, negatively impacting the market.
Dollar Tree ($DLTR) Earnings - Wednesday:

Effect: As a major discount retailer, Dollar Tree’s earnings can provide insights into consumer spending behavior. Strong earnings may suggest consumer resilience, positively impacting retail #stocks . Weak earnings could signal reduced consumer spending, potentially dampening market sentiment.
Lululemon ($LULU) Earnings - Wednesday:

Effect: Lululemon’s earnings can #influence investor sentiment in the retail and apparel sector. Positive earnings could boost the stock and the broader retail market, while disappointing results may have a negative effect.
Jobless Claims - Thursday:

Effect: This weekly report provides data on the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits. Lower-than-expected claims suggest a strong labor market, which can be positive for stocks. Higher claims can raise concerns about economic weakness, potentially leading to market declines.
U.S. Jobs Report - Friday:

Effect: This is a key indicator of economic health. Strong job growth can boost market sentiment, reflecting a robust economy, but might also raise concerns about #inflation and interest rate hikes. Weak job growth can dampen market confidence, suggesting economic challenges.
Nvidia ($NVDA) 10-For-1 Stock Split - Friday:

Effect: #Stock splits typically make shares more affordable to a broader range of investors, which can increase demand and potentially boost the stock price. Nvidia’s stock split may lead to increased trading activity and positive sentiment around the stock.
Each of these events can have significant implications for the market, influencing investor behavior and overall market trends.

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The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates stable draws criticism from analysts. The price of Bitcoin falls, but
they see capital inflows.
In line with the CME FedWatch tool's 0.6% forecast probability, the US Federal Reserve announced on June 12 that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged.
After a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC ) meeting, members decided to keep the rate between 5.25% and 5.50% for the seventh consecutive time. Notably, this decision was in line with Wall Street's expectations. Commenting on this with a touch of criticism, Anthony Pompliano recently stated: "It is arrogant for the central bank to think they can set interest rates... the market is the real rate setter."