Moody's and Fitch Assessments on Turkey's Economy. 🇹🇷⚠️

In recent updates from credit rating agencies Moody's and Fitch, positive sentiments are expressed regarding Turkey's economic situation. Here's a summary of their key points:

🔝 Fitch's Perspective:

Fitch Ratings' Country Ratings Director, Paul Gamble, finds the normalization steps in Turkey reassuring for foreign investors.

Despite positive trends, Gamble emphasizes the need for time and acknowledges significant challenges.

The policy changes post-election are seen to reduce short-term macro-financial stability risks and payment balance pressures.

However, he highlights the importance of continued confidence in the sustainability of these policy adjustments.

🆙 Moody's Analysis:

Moody's acknowledges the potential for a positive outlook if the tight monetary stance is maintained, and wage agreements align with the Central Bank's inflation reduction goal.

Positive indicators include a decrease in the current account deficit and an increase in foreign exchange reserves, especially if tied to improved external competitiveness and sustained capital inflows.

Moody's suggests a return to orthodox monetary policy is a positive move and notes the substantial tightening by the Central Bank.

Concerns are raised about imminent inflationary pressures, especially with potential excessive wage increases, and the importance of broader economic stability.

⏩ General Observations:

Moody's has not issued a specific rating update but maintains Turkey's credit rating at B3 with a stable outlook.

Standard & Poor's (S&P) recently shifted its credit rating outlook for Turkey from stable to positive, citing evidence of the country's economic rebalancing.

📝 Factors for Positive Outlook:

- Improvement in payment balance results.
- Increase in domestic savings.
- Strengthening of the Turkish Lira.
- Rise in available foreign exchange reserves.

#Moody's #Standard&Poor's #Fitch #S&P #Turkey

Fitch maintains AA+ credit rating for the U.S. despite governance challenges.🇺🇲⚙️

Fitch Ratings, a renowned international credit rating agency, has upheld the United States' long-term foreign currency credit rating at "AA+" with a stable outlook. This confirmation is underpinned by various economic strengths, including the sheer size of the U.S. economy, high per capita income, and a dynamic business environment.

However, the report also sheds light on governance challenges that have emerged over the past two decades. Notably, increased political polarization and complexities surrounding budget processes, driven by concerns about debt limits and government shutdowns, have contributed to a decline in governance standards.

One of the key strengths supporting the credit rating is the U.S.'s status as a provider of the leading global reserve currency, the U.S. dollar. Fitch recognizes the country's ability to export its currency without relying on extraordinary financial flexibility.

Nevertheless, the affirmation comes with a cautionary note about the impact of governance issues on fiscal confidence. The report suggests that these challenges may hinder the implementation of a reliable medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, raising concerns about the nation's financial trajectory.

Looking ahead, Fitch Ratings highlights the upcoming presidential and congressional elections as pivotal moments that could significantly shape policies, legislations, and the overall governance landscape. The outcomes of these elections are expected to have a profound impact on the trajectory of the United States' economic policies.

The U.S. maintains a strong "AA+" credit rating, reflecting enduring economic strengths. Governance challenges need attention for a sustainable fiscal future, with upcoming elections pivotal for the nation's global economic direction.

#Fitch #FitchRatings #usa #Dollar #UnitedStates

Fitch Ratings Raises Turkey's Growth Forecast. 🇹🇷

- Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating agency, has increased its medium-term potential growth forecast for Turkey's economy from 3.9% to 4.1%.

- This change is part of Fitch's report titled "Weakening Potential Growth in Emerging Markets as China Slows Down," where the organization lowered the average potential growth forecast for 10 emerging economies to 4% from the previous estimate of 4.3%.

- The main factor behind this decrease in growth forecasts is the expected decline in China's supply-side growth potential.

- In line with this, China's potential growth estimate for 2027 was lowered from 5.3% to 4.6%, while Russia, South Korea, and South Africa also saw reductions in their potential growth estimates.

- However, India and Mexico's economies had their potential growth forecasts raised, from 5.5% to 6.2% and from 1.4% to 2%, respectively.

- Turkey was one of the countries with an increased potential growth forecast, now standing at 4.1%.

- Fitch Ratings also raised potential growth estimates for Poland, Brazil (except for Brazil), and Indonesia.

- The agency noted that, except for Brazil and Poland, recent growth forecasts are lower than pre-COVID-19 estimates for the 10 emerging economies, attributing this to worsening demographic trends and disruptions due to the pandemic.

- It was also mentioned that revisions in forecasts for capital stock and productivity growth played a role in these adjustments.

This update from Fitch Ratings suggests a positive outlook for Turkey's economy in terms of its potential for growth in the medium term.

#Fitch #FitchRatings #Turkey #türkiye #rating