History and FOMO—now that’s the fuel that gets me going! 🚀 But lately, I’ve been hearing *FOMO* everywhere—*FOMO this, FOMO that*—and I’m thinking, "Wait, do y’all REALLY understand what FOMO is, or are you just hopping on the hype train?" 🐎

Well, let’s break it down and get real for a minute. 🔥

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*What is FOMO?*

FOMO stands for *Fear Of Missing Out*. It's that feeling when you see something big happening in the market (maybe a coin or asset you don't own) and you’re like, "I need to get in, NOW!" because you fear you'll miss the profits if you wait too long. 💸

It's that rush when everyone is talking about how the price is *skyrocketing*, and you're wondering, "Am I too late?" 😳 You buy in because of *emotion*, not necessarily because of logic or research. *Spoiler alert*: This is usually when things go sideways. 🤷🏾‍♂️

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*BTC FOMO - Remember 2017? 🚀*

Now, let’s rewind to *2017*. This was a year full of *FOMO* surrounding *Bitcoin*. BTC was soaring and hit new all-time highs, going from about *1,000* in January to almost *20,000* by December. 💥
The world was talking about *Bitcoin*, and everyone wanted to get in. People who *never heard of crypto* were suddenly talking about "getting in" on Bitcoin because they didn’t want to *miss the boat*. They rushed in, buying at *all-time highs*, driven purely by FOMO. 🚢

Then, well… the crash happened. 📉 In *2018*, BTC dropped to around *$3,000*, leaving many FOMO buyers in heavy losses. 🥲

*What Happened in 2017?*
1. *Media Hype*: The media blew up BTC’s price surge, causing even more people to jump in without understanding the market.
2. *Emotion Over Strategy*: Investors chased the market, following the crowd instead of making informed decisions.
3. *Price Manipulation*: Big players and whales often triggered FOMO by pushing the price up, knowing they could later dump it at a profit.

The *impact* of that FOMO was harsh: Many retail investors got burned as the market corrected and *lost big money*. 🤦🏾‍♂️ But for the seasoned traders, it was just another day at the office. 💼

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*Why Does FOMO Hurt?*

1. *Emotion-Driven Decisions*: FOMO leads to buying at *high prices* because of emotional reactions (fear) instead of smart market analysis.
2. *Buy High, Sell Low*: When the price drops after your impulsive buy, you're stuck holding the bag at a loss. 📉
3. *Chasing the Trend*: Instead of finding quality projects with long-term value, you’re simply following the trend. This leads to *short-term* gains but *long-term risks*.

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*How to Avoid FOMO and Stay Smart? 🧠*

1. *Don’t Let Emotions Rule*: Always make decisions based on *research* and *market analysis*, not just *fear*. 📚
2. *Have a Plan*: Set *entry* and *exit points* ahead of time. Stick to your plan, and don’t let the market noise sway you! 🔑
3. *Understand Market Cycles*: The market has *ups* and *downs*—never buy at the peak, and always understand *when to take profits*! 📈
4. *Use Stop-Loss Orders*: Protect your downside by setting *stop-loss* orders. That way, even if FOMO kicks in, you're covered! 🛡️
5. *Don't Follow the Herd*: Just because everyone is talking about a coin doesn't mean you need to buy it. Stick to your strategy and invest in what makes sense for you! 💼

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*The Bottom Line*

FOMO is dangerous in crypto, and the *BTC 2017 FOMO* crash was a painful lesson for many. But as long as you learn to stay calm, do your research, and plan your trades with a cool head, you’ll avoid the mistakes many others make. *Don’t let fear rule your crypto decisions!*

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*Remember*: Crypto is a marathon, not a sprint. 🏃‍♂️ If you stick to the plan and stay level-headed, you can make smarter moves without letting *FOMO* burn you. 🔥

$BTC

#FOMO #CryptoWisdom #InvestingTips #CryptoJourney #CryptoLife

When an asset, in this case, when a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin is overbought, that is to say, 'When it has already reached a high' and we see its behavior in the charts, it no longer rises with the same strength to reach historical ATH maximums or worse, it remains drifting with a price for days and does not move much either up or down, these are symptoms that a large correction is coming. Experts indicated a drop of BTC towards 95,000.00, and we are seeing this to date as I write this article, heading towards that price. For the eye of someone just starting out, this is not seen, but for those who have been in this business longer, they had already anticipated it and had it noted within their calculations. Therefore, if you still hold your coins and feel trapped in a red sea, do not worry, do not sell your coins or you will lose your money unless you have exited the market in time. Those of us who have gone through this once or several times can speak from experience. I remember a day when I was holding some coins I bought, when on the morning of Monday, August 5, 2024, I learned that the Japanese stock market had collapsed by 12.4%, and I heard the news and said: 'What a shame for the Japanese, but thankfully that has nothing to do with me and my business' (I had only been in cryptocurrency trading for a few months). When I opened my Binance wallet, I was surprised to see everything was in red. I had experienced something like this before, but this was worse; there was not even a green color, everything was red, and I went into a panic selling all my coins at a loss. I did not care about anything; many things were running through my mind, but I said: 'This is collapsing here too' 'I am going to rescue the little that I have left.' A while later, when all this stopped bleeding, it came like spring comes; everything turned green little by little, but I no longer had much money. The little that I had left, I had to reinvest and start to rise again. Lesson learned.

I decided to write my own opinions for a comment on one of my posts, but since it would be a bit long, it seemed more practical to prepare a separate post. I hope it helps. 😇

I respect your decision and goal, but as a requirement of basic financial literacy, it would be good not to forget the time cost of money. But money is your money, and the decision to buy and sell is your decision. No one can give you advice or tell you how to invest your money. 👌

Here, I will just try to explain how I look at things from the perspective of a technical analyst who both trades and invests. 👉

⭐ Let's keep in mind these questions for the memes;
How healthy are very long-term goals for meme coins that only run periodically on hype?How much should we rely on an instrument that shines with daily hype or pumps with a few words from someone's mouth (-Hi Elon! 🤡 -Oh, Mr. President, were you here too? 💩) and then experiences huge pullbacks, and how much of our money would it make sense to invest in such an instrument?How many of the memes that performed well this cycle were also exists in the previous cycle?How many of them are not even remembered this cycle?

I will return to these in the following section and seek answers.

👉 Now, if I talk about all coins in general:

You cannot know where the price of a coin that is in decline will stop, especially if there are no clear support and liquidation levels in the high time frame.

For this, we prefer the price to wrap somewhere horizontally after sharp declines and start an accumulation movement, and we try to verify that this is an accumulation with technical analysis (see: Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics)

This accumulation does not mean that the decline is over, there will be levels where it will be invalidated and it is logical for you to stop when you get approval with closings below it. Afterwards, you will determine a new accumulation range and continue similar analyses.

This is to observe the general view of the market structure I mentioned from a high level and to follow the critical levels. I apply technical analysis methods such as Price Action, Liquidation Concepts (many varieties) etc. to analyze detailed price movements and related formations, market structure etc. and for both breakout and invalidation confirmations.

👀 When and how much do I add to my spot coins during a decline? When do I leave / make a stop loss?
First of all, although I look at many parameters such as on-chain analysis, market cap and coin inflation for older coins, if you are not someone who deals with these things full time, of course it may be enough to look at daily, weekly and monthly charts.

For newer coins, since there is not much chart history, daily and 4H charts will be more useful to follow major supply/demand areas. In addition, it may be good to carefully monitor coins that will have a significant supply unlock.

I shared my latest spot additions here and asked what you did. You can access the post by clicking here.

I should point out that none of these buys were I made manually those days, they were limit buy orders that I entered into the orders as a result of my analyses much earlier, and he waited a long time for the buys and when the time came, the buys were filled automatically.

If those levels had not come, I would not have been able to buy and I would not have regretted it. Because I know that I should never buy a coin that has risen too much with #FOMO , and in the same way, I should never sell a coin out of #FUD because it has fallen too much or buy again thinking that it will rise from here after it has already fallen too much.

Long-term in-cycle trends
I follow long-term trends within the cycle on weekly charts and use daily and three-day charts to follow the main movements within the trend. As I said, these are not for leveraged trading, but for spot investments and spot swing trading.

For a pair in an uptrend, the breakout of the weekly trend is an important signal for me and vise versa and when I see this, I follow the formations formed in lower time frames (daily and lower etc.) and follow the confirmations about whether the decline or increase will continue with technical analysis.

My buying levels are also important supports, liquidation levels, supply/demand zones etc. in this time frame. I do not buy from an intermediate level or from the top during the rise.

I also sell a significant portion of my holdings below the level where the breakout continues in the downward direction and breaks the market structure and use this level as a stop loss.

For the remaining small amount, I wait for a possible correction and if I can exit at a better point. If this happens, I sell at that level. If it does not happen and I receive confirmation of the bearish confirmation, I will sell at that level.

From one of my previous $NEIRO analysis:

Although the chart is daily, you will see the same image on the weekly. A main trend that continues in the form of an increase and re-accumulation. Then, the break of the uptrend that I showed with the green lines was the first important signal and constituted the first step for the sale that I mentioned.

If the last important level, which is the green box below, had not been broken here, there was no definitive confirmation for the decline in the main trend (external structure) and we could say that these are internal structure movements within the last leg of the main trend.

Sometimes, after a trend break, a fake-out may occur in the form of liquidation remaining under the trend support being swept, and the rise may continue strongly by rising above the trend line again. This is a preliminary sign that a stronger uptrend than the one in the example above is still ongoing.

Trend line liquidation hunt example:
I am sharing the current $ENA chart as an example of a trend fake-out. Here, although it closed below the trend on the daily chart, the next candle remained as an inside bar and said that the decision has not been made yet. Although the next candle went above in the same way, the body closing could not stay above the previous falling candle and a form called fake setup was formed. From here, we saw that the decision has not been made yet and we continue to follow.

If the daily candle closes with the candle body on the dashed white line, we can say that the manipulation is complete and it can continue to the red box above. If it falls below the green box, we can expect sales to deepen.

We still don't know what the main direction will be, but this way we can logically determine the possibilities and then logically act when one of those possibilities is confirmed.🤝

If it is a rising coin?
A rising coin can also be bought. For this, instead of buying immediately so that I do not miss out, I wait to see that important resistances can be passed, I wait for correction and re-accumulation movements above this and wait for a market breakout by switching to a low time frame.

I place a sell order for my new buys below the support level of this newly formed accumulation level and use it as a stop loss. Because in this way with the technical confirmation, we think that the rise can continue, otherwise we can experience serious losses.

✨ Let's analyze the situation specifically for $PNUT and see what the situation is. You can make similar evaluations for your own coins and tokens as I did.

Since a healthy rise and then a re-accumulation phase was not seen for PNUT like the examples above, and a big hype and a big rise were seen all of a sudden, it would be useful to follow in lower time frames and watch where the accumulation would start. Buying before this was a risk.

I had shared a possible accumulation in my past analyses and explained the approval conditions as, whatever happens, we can say that the rise has started, whatever happens, the decline can continue.

I then mentioned that the conditions for an increase were not confirmed and that if there was an existing hold, it would be a good idea to make a stop loss under the green box.

I then mentioned that the conditions for an increase were not confirmed and that if there is an existing holder, it would be a good idea to make a stop loss under the green box.

You can confirm all of this from my past posts. In fact, if there is a past analysis in the analyses I share, I quote it and share it so that people can easily follow what we said and what happened.

Can it be bought again?
Of course, but as I said, it is not like the price has fallen so much that I will buy it. It is logical to follow the structures and formations that are formed and to buy when the return is confirmed (I know at a higher price). Is there any logic in buying something that could fall much worse at a low price? It is not my style.

Is it tradable?
Always! Those who follow my views on trade know that if there is a setup, there is a trade, if there is no setup, there is no trade. If I find a suitable setup for a pair with good liquidity in any time frame, I can trade anything.

What levels would be useful to look at for PNUT in the current situation?
I am sharing a chart on lower time frame of a different exchange before the Binance listing.

There may be potential buyers left at those levels, and in case the price falls further and reaches those levels, the reversal formations and confirmations that will occur around those levels can be followed.

As I said, it is not like I will buy when the price reaches that level or I will buy because it fell too much. It is like seeing a change of character (CHoCH), market structure break (MSB), accumulation and range exit confirmation etc.

👉 Now let's go back to our opening questions:

How healthy are very long-term goals for meme coins that only run periodically on hype?

When we look at the biggest market cap meme coins, only two coins in the top five were in previous bull cycles, but these are the first of their kind and the coins we can call the ancestors of memes. The rest of the list are all new ones. Isn't meme a periodic hype anyway?

Also, setting big targets for a coin/token with unlimited supply can already be disappointing.

Apart from that, setting a target of $25 for a token with a supply of approximately 1 billion, as in our example, means that the market cap (FDV) for the total coins in circulation (not including the potential supply that can be put into circulation if it comes) is $25B, which is the total current market value of the 5 largest meme coins after DOGE on the list of meme coins with the largest market cap. I wouldn't be that ambitious.

So the answer to the question is that I never have long-term expectations for memes.

How much should we rely on an instrument that shines with daily hype or pumps with a few words from someone's mouth (-Hi Elon! 🤡 -Oh, Mr. President, were you here too? 💩) and then experiences huge pullbacks, and how much of our money would it make sense to invest in such an instrument?
Never. If you can profit from the hype, use it, then run away quickly and forget about it.

How many of the memes that performed well this cycle were also exists in the previous cycle?
Too many. I've already explained the top five. You can check out the entire list on sites like Coin Market Cap.

In fact, most of the meme hype in this cycle was lived and finished on DEXs for days or even hours. Very few made it to CEXs.

How many of them are not even remembered this cycle?
So many that you can ask people you know who have experienced past cycles or do a background check on google or sites like coin market cap.

👀Conclusion:

Our goals make sense as long as they have logical and supportable fundamental/technical underpinnings.It is not sold because it has risen too much, it may rise even more. Instead, proceed by taking profit.It is not sold because it has fallen too much, it may reverse from there.It is not bought because it has fallen too much, it may fall much worse.Do not panic buy and sell during moments of accelerated rise or fall, try to understand what happened first what is forming. Better yet, plan what would happen with your previous analysis and wait for your targets below or above in accordance with that plan.Do not trade without knowing and without a setup and/or plan.

It was a long article again and I was tired while writing it. I hope it will be useful to everyone who takes the time to read it.

Peace out! 🙏