Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris: Who’s Leading the Polls?
In several critical states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is heating up. As the Democratic vice-president, Harris has been campaigning tirelessly across the nation, while Trump, the former Republican president, is equally busy rallying support and raising funds.
We’ve been closely tracking nationwide polling data and synthesizing the numbers to gauge the current state of the race. Since Harris took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden, her support has steadily increased. She’s maintained a consistent lead of approximately three points over Trump on a national level since August. However, it's important to remember that the American election is determined by the Electoral College, not just the popular vote. Our prediction model assesses whether this national lead is sufficient for Harris to secure the White House.
Despite the intensity and drama of the campaign, polling has remained relatively steady. Trump, facing unprecedented challenges as the first convicted felon to run for president, has survived two assassination attempts—one at a rally in Pennsylvania and another at his Florida golf course. Meanwhile, Harris outshined Trump in their sole debate and holds a significant financial advantage. Yet, weighed down by the Biden administration’s record, she hasn’t managed to decisively pull away from her opponent.
Both campaigns have been relatively light on policy, which seems deliberate, but the personal contrast between Harris, a former prosecutor known for her optimism, and Trump, who is still dealing with serious charges related to his alleged role in the 2020 election scandal, is stark.
Our team is closely following the polls, providing an average of nationwide data, including trends for Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as well as recent polls since Harris entered the race. Keep up with key updates, polling insights, and candidate profiles by subscribing to our daily newsletter, The US in Brief.
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