THE 2024 BITCOIN HALVING: A BTC VALUE BOOM OR A SURVIVAL CRISIS FOR MINERS?
With 2024 already underway, the anticipation in crypto circles is hitting a fever pitch as everyone braces for Bitcoin's halving – an event that could reshape its market landscape. It deserves to be looked into as historically this event sparked transformative waves across the crypto scene. Knowing what we've learned from previous halvings, we're set to steer ahead with a keen eye, making sure our moves are shaped by those insights. But is this upcoming halving any different? Let’s figure it out.
Bitcoin design is all about making BTC less and less available over time, keeping inflation in check. There’s a set cap of 21 million Bitcoins to ever exist, and we’ve already hit the 19.62 million mark. The scarcity of Bitcoin, with its strictly limited release into the market, is a major reason why people call it “digital gold” – as both these assets have that "hard to come by" quality.
Thinking of the Bitcoin blockchain as a ticking clock, we can see that halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, or about every four years, with the reward for mining new blocks getting chopped in half. It’s been this way since Bitcoin’s kick-off in 2009, starting at 50 BTC per block and heading down to 3.125 BTC in 2024.
The Stock-to-Flow ratio, which compares existing supply to new coins coming in, shows Bitcoin is about to get rarer than a platinum album. By 2032, after the 2024 and 2030 halvings, Bitcoin’s scarcity will soar, so it will be even more of a gem than gold.
Post the 2012 halving, just 100 days later, the market cap exploded by 342%. Even more impressive, the peak price hit a staggering $1,152 the next year, an 8,761% leap. Flash forward to 2016: rewards halved from 25 to 12.5 BTC, and the price soared to $17,760 the following year, a 2,572% jump. The most recent halving in 2020 saw the reward drop to 6.25 BTC, and Bitcoin's price didn't disappoint, hitting $67,549 the next year, marking a solid 594% growth.
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