From a trend structure perspective,
$BTC Currently operating in a typical strong but cautious upward channel. The price of 106580.89 is about 10 dollars below the upper Bollinger Band (106591.61), which gives the bulls enough room for a breakout while maintaining a safety cushion of around 165 dollars from the middle Bollinger Band (106415.35). Although the 5-minute cycle shows a strong upward trend, the trend strength of 0.28 is relatively weak, suggesting that this upward momentum still needs further confirmation. Notably, the RSI remains in a neutral range of 53.83, indicating that the current upward trend still has room to continue and has not entered an overheated state.
From the momentum indicators, there are some divergence signals worth noting. Although the moving average system shows a bullish arrangement, the MACD has turned bearish, and this divergence usually suggests that there may be adjustments in the short term. However, considering that the current trading volume remains at normal levels and the volatility is only 0.74, indicating that market sentiment is relatively stable, this divergence is more likely to be a short-term adjustment demand rather than a trend reversal signal. Overall bias still leans bullish, and the strength of 0.56, while not strong, is sufficient to support price movement at the current position.
In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to adopt a prudent progressive approach: Step one, retain existing long positions at the current location, with a stop-loss set at the middle Bollinger Band level of 106415, which provides a reasonable risk control range; Step two, if an adjustment occurs, consider incrementally increasing positions in the 106300-106400 range, as this area has support from the middle Bollinger Band and the RSI still has upward space; Step three, once the upper Bollinger Band at 106591 is broken, consider moderately increasing the position size, but given the existence of divergence signals, it is advised to keep the total position size controlled within 40%, while strictly implementing the stop-loss strategy. Due to the currently low risk level, it may be considered to use leverage of around 3 times, but it is essential to monitor the corresponding trading volume in real-time.
#BTC再创新高 #比特币冲向11万?