降息影响

🏛️ As the FOMC meeting approaches, market speculation on different expectations for interest rate cuts has increased. How should investors respond?

As the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on September 18 approaches, the market is holding its breath waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. A recent report from 10X Research warned that if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, it could herald some worrying economic data, resulting in significant short-term volatility in the market.

Currently, according to CME data, the market predicts that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week is as high as 73%, while the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is 27%. This means that there is nearly a 1/3 chance that the Fed will adopt a more aggressive 50 basis point interest rate cut, while more than 2/3 of the possibility will be a more moderate 25 basis point interest rate cut.

Interest rate cuts have always been an event that the market is looking forward to. Some people believe that only after an interest rate cut, and then with the increase in liquidity, will altcoins have the opportunity to see significant price increases.

However, the specific reaction of the market is random. So whether it's going up or down, and whether any potential surge will happen before a rate cut, with a rate cut, or after a rate cut, is all unknown and all possibilities exist. We will wait and see and make active responses and countermeasures.

At the same time, historical data shows that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates usually leads to a small correction in the market before and after the announcement. At the same time, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points at one time, they must have seen some very worrying data behind the scenes, which may cause great turmoil to the market in the short term!

I personally agree with the research report of 10X Research. The view is that unless a major financial market crisis occurs within the next week, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is unlikely.

Therefore, if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, this may be more positive news for the investment market, because it shows that the economic situation is within control, the overall state is relatively stable, and the extent of the interest rate cut is also within expectations. .

💬How much do you think the Fed will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting? 25 basis points or 50 basis points? Will you adjust your investment portfolio in the face of possible market fluctuations? Leave your opinions in the comment section!

#美联储利率决议 #FOMC会议 #市场预测 #降息影响

📢 China cuts interest rates twice in a week, is it an expected adjustment or a game between China and the United States?

Recently, China cut interest rates twice in a week, a move that surprised many market participants. Many people believe that this may indicate that the Chinese economy is under pressure, and even regard it as a panic signal.

Usually, when the mainstream media begins to hype the possibility of interest rate cuts, the prices of risky assets tend to rise. But when interest rate cuts actually happen, they may often be accompanied by short-term cuts.

At the same time, mainstream media and large financial institutions can describe interest rate cuts as a positive economic stimulus or as a sign of economic weakness.

In recent days, the decline of the US and A-share stock markets has been hyped by some foreign media, attributed to China's continuous interest rate cuts, and interpreted as a panic alarm in the market, creating more uneasiness in the market in this way.

At the same time, media reports can easily make people lose their sober minds. If you don't think deeply about the logic behind it, you may worry that the market will pull back deeper, and make panic selling decisions.

Europe has already started to cut interest rates, and China's continuous interest rate cuts followed closely, causing most countries in the world to lower interest rates, but the United States still maintains a high interest rate level, which seems to be part of the economic game between China and the United States.

This high interest rate policy actually attracts global funds to flow back to the US capital market. Therefore, this is not only an economic game, but also a game to see who can hold on to the end. Because the country that cuts interest rates last may absorb a large amount of global funds.

Although the United States' international political and economic strategies are sometimes considered not fair, they are usually effective. This is also one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve originally planned to cut interest rates from March this year, but has been delayed until now. One of the reasons why it has not been implemented in July.

In the big chess game of the global economy, each country is looking for the best strategy to maintain its economic competitiveness. Investors need to keep a clear head, deeply analyze the logic behind various economic policies, and make rational investment decisions. 🌐

💬What do you think of China's continuous interest rate cuts? What impact will it have on the global economy?Comment area! #中国经济 #降息影响 #全球经济博弈

Let's talk about why there is a possibility of a short-term decline before and after the interest rate cut. The cryptocurrency market is completely likely to be dragged down by the US dollar, US stocks and US bonds. At 2 a.m. on September 19, if the interest rate cut is confirmed, it means that the arbitrage point is low, and the US dollar will also depreciate. Therefore, if you make money on the US dollar, you will also lose the exchange rate. Why doesn't capital run away? A 25% interest rate cut may be okay, giving capital time to slowly transfer. Most capital has also prepared for the interest rate cut, but the funds must have a place to go if they want to change their layout, and the relevant industrial chain must be established. Otherwise, even if the interest rate is cut, the funds will not know where to go. If the interest rate is cut by 50%, it will force capital to flee the United States, because the US dollar may depreciate too quickly, and US dollar assets need to be quickly abandoned, which may cause a series of financial stampedes that affect the cryptocurrency market.
A shares have been falling, and the economy has not been able to open up. In fact, A shares are controlled by state-owned enterprises, so the reason for its decline is that state-owned enterprises have taken funds to the United States to make profits, whether it is arbitrage, buying treasury bonds, or buying gold and US stocks. In short, technically they are making money. There are 6 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange, of which 3 trillion foreign exchange is not converted into foreign exchange. It is conceivable how much power is involved.
However, in the long run, everyone has cut interest rates, all at low interest rates, and there are no stable hedging products in the market, so capital will turn to relatively risky investments and will begin to be invested in the real industry. #降息 #降息前后走势 #比特币挖矿难度创历史新高 #降息影响 $BTC $ETH $BNB