【Trump's Tariff Combo's 'Impossible Task' and Asset Allocation Window】
🔥 Trump loudly threw out the '60% Tariff on China + Comprehensive Trade War 2.0' combo, but the reality is harsh: the U.S. economy has fallen into a threefold dilemma!
📌 Fatal Logic Chain:
➡️ New tariffs implemented = Import costs surge → Supermarket prices rise by 15%+ (calculated by the Peterson Institute)
➡️ Inflation surges again = Federal Reserve's rate cut dreams shattered → 5.5% interest rate becomes long-term
➡️ $34 trillion national debt interest exceeds a trillion → Debt repayment cost exceeds $100,000 per second (CBO warning)
💥 Magical Reality: When 'America First' hits 'Debt Cliff', rate cuts have become a political necessity. Wall Street consensus: After the election dust settles, the Federal Reserve will surely initiate a loosening cycle, with the 2025 interest rate center looking at 3%!
🎯 Smart Money Movements:
• U.S. 30-Year Treasury Futures Long Positions Hit All-Time High (CFTC Data)
• Gold ETF Holdings Exceed Pandemic Peak
• Tech Giants' Earnings Season Sees Inventory Surge, Hiding Signs of Replenishment Cycle
⚠️ Current Window: Valuation mismatch during policy oscillation + rate cut expectation gap = Critical point for asset repricing. History does not repeat itself, but it always rhymes - the market before the 'Fed Pivot' in 2019 is being replicated.
#DebtVolcano #RateCutCountdown
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