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Crypto PM
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VC's Scam You Every Day, Making Tokens Dump By 80-95%
If you put $10,000 in $STRK 7 months ago.
Today, you would be down by $8,500 (-85%).
I bet you hold these tokens (they're programmed to dump) and don't even know about it 🧵👇
Most people are too lazy to do basic research.
But they are not too lazy to buy dip after dip.
Wondering why their portfolio is showing -20%, -50% or even -80%, they are missing a crucial factor.
Today, I will show you how to define a token with guaranteed -90% potential.
The key factor is to compare how the unlocks influence the chart of the token.
What does it mean?
VCs in early founding rounds get a huge amount of tokens, but they are unlocking over time by rounds.
Let me show you two illustrative examples:
In April, $STRK price was dropping, staying under $1.3 at $800M MCap.
In May, when the price got back up to $1.3, the MCap was $1.7 billion.
That's +$400M to MCap in 1 month.
$ARB. In November, it traded at $1.1 with MCap around $1.3 billion.
The price then surged past $2, boosting the market cap.
By April-May, the price dropped to $1, but MCap became $3 billion.
That's +$1,7B to MCap.
What is happening?
VCs invest different rounds under different conditions. At some point of time, VC tokens starting to unlock.
Right before unlocking begins, price pumps, and they're actively starting selling.
How it works: Price pump → Unlock → VCs sell → Retail buy.
How to define a good project?
Make sure you check unlock charts, as in $STRK and $ARB.
The market cap and the price need to be almost synchronized.
$AVAX is a great example 👇
The best way to find such projects is CryptoRank.
It allows you to compare market cap and price at the same time.
Simple step-by step 👇
Firstly, you need to see how many percent of the tokens have already been unlocked.
➱ Go to http://cryptorank.io
➱ Head to the Token Unlocks tab.
There, you will see the % of locked and unlocked tokens, as well as the start of the next unlock round.
Then search and compare the tokens' Market Cap and Price.
➱ Find the token in the search bar.
➱ Select all-time and add MC.
Try to find tokens where MC and price are close to parallel.
Make sure the tokens have seen unlocks before and are handling them well.
Be aware of projects with 1 or 2 rounds because, in the long term, they may fail.
In conclusion, I must say:
Tons of people lose their fortunes because of their lack of knowledge.
Make sure you are becoming smarter every day and don't forget to follow me @Crypto PM
THAT'S IT FOR TODAY.. CYA!
#WhaleAlert #Whale.Alert #cryptopm #VCdumping #AltcoinInvesting
Today, you would be down by $8,500 (-85%).
I bet you hold these tokens (they're programmed to dump) and don't even know about it 🧵👇
Most people are too lazy to do basic research.
But they are not too lazy to buy dip after dip.
Wondering why their portfolio is showing -20%, -50% or even -80%, they are missing a crucial factor.
Today, I will show you how to define a token with guaranteed -90% potential.
The key factor is to compare how the unlocks influence the chart of the token.
What does it mean?
VCs in early founding rounds get a huge amount of tokens, but they are unlocking over time by rounds.
Let me show you two illustrative examples:
In April, $STRK price was dropping, staying under $1.3 at $800M MCap.
In May, when the price got back up to $1.3, the MCap was $1.7 billion.
That's +$400M to MCap in 1 month.
$ARB. In November, it traded at $1.1 with MCap around $1.3 billion.
The price then surged past $2, boosting the market cap.
By April-May, the price dropped to $1, but MCap became $3 billion.
That's +$1,7B to MCap.
What is happening?
VCs invest different rounds under different conditions. At some point of time, VC tokens starting to unlock.
Right before unlocking begins, price pumps, and they're actively starting selling.
How it works: Price pump → Unlock → VCs sell → Retail buy.
How to define a good project?
Make sure you check unlock charts, as in $STRK and $ARB.
The market cap and the price need to be almost synchronized.
$AVAX is a great example 👇
The best way to find such projects is CryptoRank.
It allows you to compare market cap and price at the same time.
Simple step-by step 👇
Firstly, you need to see how many percent of the tokens have already been unlocked.
➱ Go to http://cryptorank.io
➱ Head to the Token Unlocks tab.
There, you will see the % of locked and unlocked tokens, as well as the start of the next unlock round.
Then search and compare the tokens' Market Cap and Price.
➱ Find the token in the search bar.
➱ Select all-time and add MC.
Try to find tokens where MC and price are close to parallel.
Make sure the tokens have seen unlocks before and are handling them well.
Be aware of projects with 1 or 2 rounds because, in the long term, they may fail.
In conclusion, I must say:
Tons of people lose their fortunes because of their lack of knowledge.
Make sure you are becoming smarter every day and don't forget to follow me @Crypto PM
THAT'S IT FOR TODAY.. CYA!
#WhaleAlert #Whale.Alert #cryptopm #VCdumping #AltcoinInvesting
#Notcoin
LIVEBullishBanter
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Why I Won't Lose Any Money on #Notcoin👀🔥 at the Current Price
Despite #NOTCOİN dipping to $0.007, I remain confident in my investment since I purchased at $0.0065 during a period of market fear. For me to incur a loss, Notcoin would have to fall to $0.0064, which I believe is highly unlikely. Cryptocurrency trading is largely psychological, and emotions often drive decisions. The best time to buy any cryptocurrency is when it is significantly down and there is widespread panic. When NOT was trading between $0.0048 and $0.0065, many dismissed it as a "shit coin," which is when I seized the opportunity and acquired 300,000 Notcoin.
Investors typically shy away from coins that are performing poorly and only buy when the market starts to show an upward trend—a huge mistake. Those who derided Notcoin at $0.0065 ended up buying it at its peak of $0.02, driven by the allure of a rising market. This behavior often leads to losses, as smart traders take positions during market downturns, not when the market is already bullish.
If you only respond to a green market, you will inevitably lose money to savvy traders who buy during bearish periods. Inexperienced buyers often jump into the market when it shows bullish signs, but experienced traders, like myself, prefer to enter during bearish phases. #Io and #Not are currently trading at very low rates, yet inexperienced traders won't buy these coins now. They will enter the market at the top when it shows bullish trends.
Smart traders buy when the market is down, recognizing the long-term potential. In contrast, inexperienced traders buy during market highs out of fear of missing out. You can be lenient with other tokens, but not with Notcoin. It has a strong and dedicated community. Remember, the first appearance of significant projects often leads to success: Bitcoin as the first coin, $BNB as the first exchange coin, TON as the first Telegram coin, Dogecoin as the first meme coin, Notcoin as the first game-tapping coin, and $SOL as the first proof-of-stake (PoS) coin.
#Notcoinnews #BinanceTournament
Despite #NOTCOİN dipping to $0.007, I remain confident in my investment since I purchased at $0.0065 during a period of market fear. For me to incur a loss, Notcoin would have to fall to $0.0064, which I believe is highly unlikely. Cryptocurrency trading is largely psychological, and emotions often drive decisions. The best time to buy any cryptocurrency is when it is significantly down and there is widespread panic. When NOT was trading between $0.0048 and $0.0065, many dismissed it as a "shit coin," which is when I seized the opportunity and acquired 300,000 Notcoin.
Investors typically shy away from coins that are performing poorly and only buy when the market starts to show an upward trend—a huge mistake. Those who derided Notcoin at $0.0065 ended up buying it at its peak of $0.02, driven by the allure of a rising market. This behavior often leads to losses, as smart traders take positions during market downturns, not when the market is already bullish.
If you only respond to a green market, you will inevitably lose money to savvy traders who buy during bearish periods. Inexperienced buyers often jump into the market when it shows bullish signs, but experienced traders, like myself, prefer to enter during bearish phases. #Io and #Not are currently trading at very low rates, yet inexperienced traders won't buy these coins now. They will enter the market at the top when it shows bullish trends.
Smart traders buy when the market is down, recognizing the long-term potential. In contrast, inexperienced traders buy during market highs out of fear of missing out. You can be lenient with other tokens, but not with Notcoin. It has a strong and dedicated community. Remember, the first appearance of significant projects often leads to success: Bitcoin as the first coin, $BNB as the first exchange coin, TON as the first Telegram coin, Dogecoin as the first meme coin, Notcoin as the first game-tapping coin, and $SOL as the first proof-of-stake (PoS) coin.
#Notcoinnews #BinanceTournament
Notcoin
LIVECoinstages
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Notcoin (NOT) Price Surges 20%; Can TON-Based Coin Turn Things Around?
On Friday, June 14, Notcoin (NOT) saw a significant rally of nearly 20%, outperforming other meme coins despite declines in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices.
This surge marked Notcoin’s strongest performance in recent weeks, reflecting positive momentum and potential growth in the cryptocurrency market.
Notcoin (NOT) Surges on Exchange Listings and Trading Volume Growth
Notcoin (NOT) experienced a notable price surge of nearly 20% on Friday, June 14, driven partly by significant developments in its trading availability. Coinbase recently announced plans to introduce Notcoin perpetual futures on its platforms, Coinbase International Exchange and Coinbase Advanced, starting after June 20. This news contributed to boosting investor confidence and driving up Notcoin’s price.
Additionally, Binance’s decision to expand trading options for NOT, which it listed officially in May 2024, further fueled the token’s gains.
Despite a subsequent 4% correction after the initial spike, Notcoin (NOT) continues to trade actively at $0.019 at the time of writing. Notcoin is primarily known as a gaming token, boasting a user base of over 35 million. Since February, the token has seen remarkable growth, surging by an impressive 400% in May alone. In the past week, NOT also witnessed a substantial 67% increase in daily trading volume, surpassing even Shiba Inu, with trading volumes reaching $926.27 million.
Currently, Notcoin (NOT) holds a market capitalization of $19 billion, reflecting its growing prominence and investor interest in the cryptocurrency market.
Notcoin (NOT) and TON Token Show Strong Performance Amid Market Trends
Notcoin (NOT) and TON Token have both shown impressive performance recently, reflecting positive trends in the cryptocurrency market.
Notcoin (NOT) followed a trajectory similar to TON’s recent surge. On Friday, June 14, Notcoin’s price surged nearly 20%, marking a significant uptick in its performance amid challenges faced by major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This rally was partly driven by Coinbase’s announcement to introduce Notcoin perpetual futures on its platforms, scheduled to commence after June 20. Furthermore, Binance’s expansion of trading options for NOT, following its official listing in May 2024, also contributed to the token’s upward momentum.
Meanwhile, TON Token, based on the Telegram network, experienced a brief decline in early June but rebounded strongly later in the month. Over the past week, TON’s price surged from $7.25 to $8.25, buoyed by its extensive user base of 900 million on Telegram. This surge has positioned TON ahead of Ethereum in terms of new addresses created, indicating robust growth potential moving forward.
According to analyst Ali Martinez, TON Token is poised for a significant 40% bullish movement, with a target price set at $11. This optimistic outlook underscores the positive sentiment surrounding both Notcoin (NOT) and TON Token as they navigate the cryptocurrency market landscape.
⚠️Disclaimer
This content aims to enrich readers with information. Always conduct independent research and use discretionary funds before investing. All buying, selling, and crypto asset investment activities are the responsibility of the reader.
#Notcoin👀🔥 #NOT
This surge marked Notcoin’s strongest performance in recent weeks, reflecting positive momentum and potential growth in the cryptocurrency market.
Notcoin (NOT) Surges on Exchange Listings and Trading Volume Growth
Notcoin (NOT) experienced a notable price surge of nearly 20% on Friday, June 14, driven partly by significant developments in its trading availability. Coinbase recently announced plans to introduce Notcoin perpetual futures on its platforms, Coinbase International Exchange and Coinbase Advanced, starting after June 20. This news contributed to boosting investor confidence and driving up Notcoin’s price.
Additionally, Binance’s decision to expand trading options for NOT, which it listed officially in May 2024, further fueled the token’s gains.
Despite a subsequent 4% correction after the initial spike, Notcoin (NOT) continues to trade actively at $0.019 at the time of writing. Notcoin is primarily known as a gaming token, boasting a user base of over 35 million. Since February, the token has seen remarkable growth, surging by an impressive 400% in May alone. In the past week, NOT also witnessed a substantial 67% increase in daily trading volume, surpassing even Shiba Inu, with trading volumes reaching $926.27 million.
Currently, Notcoin (NOT) holds a market capitalization of $19 billion, reflecting its growing prominence and investor interest in the cryptocurrency market.
Notcoin (NOT) and TON Token Show Strong Performance Amid Market Trends
Notcoin (NOT) and TON Token have both shown impressive performance recently, reflecting positive trends in the cryptocurrency market.
Notcoin (NOT) followed a trajectory similar to TON’s recent surge. On Friday, June 14, Notcoin’s price surged nearly 20%, marking a significant uptick in its performance amid challenges faced by major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This rally was partly driven by Coinbase’s announcement to introduce Notcoin perpetual futures on its platforms, scheduled to commence after June 20. Furthermore, Binance’s expansion of trading options for NOT, following its official listing in May 2024, also contributed to the token’s upward momentum.
Meanwhile, TON Token, based on the Telegram network, experienced a brief decline in early June but rebounded strongly later in the month. Over the past week, TON’s price surged from $7.25 to $8.25, buoyed by its extensive user base of 900 million on Telegram. This surge has positioned TON ahead of Ethereum in terms of new addresses created, indicating robust growth potential moving forward.
According to analyst Ali Martinez, TON Token is poised for a significant 40% bullish movement, with a target price set at $11. This optimistic outlook underscores the positive sentiment surrounding both Notcoin (NOT) and TON Token as they navigate the cryptocurrency market landscape.
⚠️Disclaimer
This content aims to enrich readers with information. Always conduct independent research and use discretionary funds before investing. All buying, selling, and crypto asset investment activities are the responsibility of the reader.
#Notcoin👀🔥 #NOT
$NOT 🚀🚀🚀
LIVEHamzkhn
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$NOT 🚀 Exciting news alert! 🚀 Just came across an article on Finbold discussing the price analysis for Notcoin, and it looks like there's some bullish strength brewing despite the recent weakness in other cryptocurrencies. 📈 The article even suggests that Notcoin could potentially reach $1 by 2024! 💰💥
If you're looking for a promising investment opportunity, this could be the one to keep an eye on. Who knows, we might just witness Notcoin skyrocketing in the coming years! 🌟 #Notcoin #Cryptocurrency #Bullish #InvestmentOpportunity #Finbold #ToTheMoon 🚀🌕 #AirdropGuide #Notcoin👀🔥 #BinanceTournament #BTCFOMCWatch #ETHETFsApproved
If you're looking for a promising investment opportunity, this could be the one to keep an eye on. Who knows, we might just witness Notcoin skyrocketing in the coming years! 🌟 #Notcoin #Cryptocurrency #Bullish #InvestmentOpportunity #Finbold #ToTheMoon 🚀🌕 #AirdropGuide #Notcoin👀🔥 #BinanceTournament #BTCFOMCWatch #ETHETFsApproved
#bitcoin
LIVECoinDesk
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There Can (Probably) Be Only One Bitcoin
One of my key questions about the next era in crypto and blockchain is this: How will all the capital likely be deployed into digital assets and cryptocurrencies as they become better regulated?
More than 90% of the world’s financial and business assets are considered “on-shore” – that is, they are owned and managed by entities and people residing in the countries where they are bought and sold.
Today, most crypto-assets are bought and sold off-shore (I estimate about 80% based on data from CoinGecko). However, as more regulated opportunities open up, new capital will flow into these digital asset environments. I don’t, however, think there will be a huge new range of cryptocurrency growth opportunities.
If you read my columns regularly, you know that I strongly believe that Ethereum will follow the path of many other technology ecosystems towards dominance. Ethereum is, first and foremost, a technology platform. Yes, ETH is a cryptocurrency, but its main demand driver is for use, as a payment for transaction processing. I think over time, ETH will largely be subject to the laws of supply and demand for processing power on this “world computer.”
The technology industry needs and thrives upon standards that provide economies of scale and network effects. Ethereum has won the standards war for programming and has largely fixed its scalability issues, making it the default choice. Digital assets will, by and large, exist in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Digital assets can be much bigger than just a digital version of gold
Bitcoin isn’t subject to the same rules. Though people tend to lump them together, Bitcoin is a true crypto-asset and very much like gold; people don’t buy it with plans to use it. They buy it for its scarcity value and to see it appreciate as an asset. Like gold, people do not expect Bitcoin to generate a cash flow, just to appreciate through its scarcity.
Nor do I think that recent efforts to add a Layer 2 ecosystem to Bitcoin, similar to what exists in Ethereum, is likely to change this outcome. The Ethereum ecosystem has an enormous lead and Bitcoin users that want to make their asset programmable have already been migrating it into “wrapped” Bitcoins on Ethereum for some time.
So, can there be only one Bitcoin?
Theoretically, there can be infinite Bitcoins. It feels like there practically already are. Litecoin, Dogecoin, and countless other meme coins and cryptocurrencies are nearly identical copies of Bitcoin. And while there is no BrodyCoin as of yet, I do offer complimentary NFTs (get yours here!).
Despite the effectively infinite supply of Bitcoin copies, I suspect that there really can and only ever will be one Bitcoin, and it’s the one we already have. Let’s stick with the gold analogy. While there isn’t an infinite supply of gold, there are quite a few other precious metals out there. We could just as easily trade in silver or diamonds as gold.
Despite there being multiple options available, however, gold absolutely dominates the market for precious metals. The total market cap of global gold stores is estimated at $13.7 trillion. Silver comes in at just $1.3 trillion and the market cap. An order of magnitude separates gold from the next alternative and so I believe we will see Bitcoin retain a position in the order of a magnitude higher than any other alternative crypto asset.
I think this has a couple of important implications for people as they prepare for the next wave of growth in these markets that will come from a regulated era. The first is that inventing a new cryptocurrency isn’t necessarily going to be a path to success. Bitcoin has that role and, as people want digital gold, that is what they are going to buy.
Second, the world of digital assets should, and can be much bigger than just a digital version of gold. Oil is essential (for the moment) to the global economy and it’s 10 times larger than gold – doing $1.7 trillion in revenue (not to be confused with market cap) annually. Net new growth opportunities are likely to be much bigger by creating something that is used by consumers or needed by enterprises. That space is much larger than holding reserve assets. It’s where I’ll be looking for the next opportunities for real growth.
More than 90% of the world’s financial and business assets are considered “on-shore” – that is, they are owned and managed by entities and people residing in the countries where they are bought and sold.
Today, most crypto-assets are bought and sold off-shore (I estimate about 80% based on data from CoinGecko). However, as more regulated opportunities open up, new capital will flow into these digital asset environments. I don’t, however, think there will be a huge new range of cryptocurrency growth opportunities.
If you read my columns regularly, you know that I strongly believe that Ethereum will follow the path of many other technology ecosystems towards dominance. Ethereum is, first and foremost, a technology platform. Yes, ETH is a cryptocurrency, but its main demand driver is for use, as a payment for transaction processing. I think over time, ETH will largely be subject to the laws of supply and demand for processing power on this “world computer.”
The technology industry needs and thrives upon standards that provide economies of scale and network effects. Ethereum has won the standards war for programming and has largely fixed its scalability issues, making it the default choice. Digital assets will, by and large, exist in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Digital assets can be much bigger than just a digital version of gold
Bitcoin isn’t subject to the same rules. Though people tend to lump them together, Bitcoin is a true crypto-asset and very much like gold; people don’t buy it with plans to use it. They buy it for its scarcity value and to see it appreciate as an asset. Like gold, people do not expect Bitcoin to generate a cash flow, just to appreciate through its scarcity.
Nor do I think that recent efforts to add a Layer 2 ecosystem to Bitcoin, similar to what exists in Ethereum, is likely to change this outcome. The Ethereum ecosystem has an enormous lead and Bitcoin users that want to make their asset programmable have already been migrating it into “wrapped” Bitcoins on Ethereum for some time.
So, can there be only one Bitcoin?
Theoretically, there can be infinite Bitcoins. It feels like there practically already are. Litecoin, Dogecoin, and countless other meme coins and cryptocurrencies are nearly identical copies of Bitcoin. And while there is no BrodyCoin as of yet, I do offer complimentary NFTs (get yours here!).
Despite the effectively infinite supply of Bitcoin copies, I suspect that there really can and only ever will be one Bitcoin, and it’s the one we already have. Let’s stick with the gold analogy. While there isn’t an infinite supply of gold, there are quite a few other precious metals out there. We could just as easily trade in silver or diamonds as gold.
Despite there being multiple options available, however, gold absolutely dominates the market for precious metals. The total market cap of global gold stores is estimated at $13.7 trillion. Silver comes in at just $1.3 trillion and the market cap. An order of magnitude separates gold from the next alternative and so I believe we will see Bitcoin retain a position in the order of a magnitude higher than any other alternative crypto asset.
I think this has a couple of important implications for people as they prepare for the next wave of growth in these markets that will come from a regulated era. The first is that inventing a new cryptocurrency isn’t necessarily going to be a path to success. Bitcoin has that role and, as people want digital gold, that is what they are going to buy.
Second, the world of digital assets should, and can be much bigger than just a digital version of gold. Oil is essential (for the moment) to the global economy and it’s 10 times larger than gold – doing $1.7 trillion in revenue (not to be confused with market cap) annually. Net new growth opportunities are likely to be much bigger by creating something that is used by consumers or needed by enterprises. That space is much larger than holding reserve assets. It’s where I’ll be looking for the next opportunities for real growth.
#HalvingHorizons
LIVE
Binance Square Official
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Predict the price of BTC at 20th April 00:00 (UTC+0) to win up to $10000 of SATS token rewards!
To mark this milestone of Bitcoin Halving, all verified users can complete specific tasks on Binance Square during the Activity Period, and qualify for up to $10,000 of SATS token voucher reward. Activity Period: 2024-03-04 09:00 (UTC) to 2024-04-14 09:00 (UTC)All KYC-verified Binance users who log into their Binance accounts and complete the following tasks during the Activity Period will qualify for the $10,000 of SATS reward. Tasks: Comment your prediction for the price of BTC on 20th April 00:00 (UTC+0) on this post. Share this post on your social media and #HalvingHorizonsThe user with the closest prediction will win $5000. If more than one user shares the same prediction, you’ll share the price pool. AndIf you correctly guessed the price and signed up for a Binance account during the activity period through the shared link of this post or the Binance Square referral link, you can unlock a share of extra $2000 price poolAndIf you correctly guessed the price and completed at least 10 trades during the activity period, you will unlock a share of the extra $3000 price poolEach user can only submit 1 entry. Terms & ConditionsThis activity may not be available in your region. Eligible users must be logged in to their verified Binance accounts whilst completing tasks during the Activity Period in order to qualify.The $10,000 of SATS token voucher rewards pool will be divided equally among all qualified users.Winners will be notified via a push notification under Creator Center > Square Assistant. Voucher rewards will be distributed within 21 working days after the activity ends. Users may check their voucher rewards via Profile > Rewards Hub. The validity period for the voucher is set at seven days from the day of distribution. Learn how to redeem a voucher.Illegally bulk registered accounts or sub-accounts shall not be eligible to participate or receive any rewards. Binance reserves the right to cancel a user’s eligibility in this activity if the account is involved in any behavior that breaches the Binance Square Community Management Guidelines or Binance Square Community Platform Terms and Conditions.Binance reserves the right at any time in its sole and absolute discretion to determine and/or amend or vary these terms and conditions without prior notice, including but not limited to canceling, extending, terminating or suspending this activity, the eligibility terms and criteria, the selection and number of winners, and the timing of any act to be done, and all participants shall be bound by these amendments.Binance reserves the right of final interpretation of this activity.Additional promotion terms and conditions can be accessed here.There may be discrepancies in the translated version of this original article in English. Please reference this original version for the latest or most accurate information where any discrepancies may arise.
crypto
LIVE深潮 TechFlow
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如何在下次牛市中抓住 20 倍到 100 倍的币种？
撰文：VIKTOR
编译：深潮TechFlow
我花了相当多的时间研究上一轮牛市、当时热门的不同叙事、利润最大化的轮动、2021年表现最佳的代币以及它们巨大收益背后的逻辑。
这个新周期不会和前一个完全相同，但我们应该记住许多教训，因为历史是相似的，尤其是在金融市场，大部分繁荣来自于人类大脑的思考方式，这是永远不会改变的。
让我们直接进入正题。
牛市的一般性经验
新币表现优异，旧币表现不佳
2021年牛市的一个显著趋势是旧币的表现不佳，2018 年周期中的币种几乎什么币在2021年中表现好的。
Ripple (XRP)、Stellar Lumens (XLM)、Bitcoin Cash (BCH)、NEO、XEM、IOTA、EOS、Dash、Monero (XMR)、Zcash (ZEC) 和 Tron (TRX) 从未再次达到它们之前的最高价格（以美元计），并且自2018年以来它们相对于BTC基本上只有下跌。
当然，除了BTC和ETH，主要旧币中唯一的好表现来自于BNB、Cardano (ADA)、Ethereum Classic (ETC) 和当然还有DOGE。
这是CoinMarketCap在2017年12月的排名截图。我强烈建议你查看这些历史快照的几个日期，以帮助你了解加密货币市场是如何 "轮动 "的。
大多数币种在牛市真正开始前都表现不如BTC
当我们处于熊市中期，认为我们接近底部时，显然是购买BTC和ETH并持有到下一个牛市的最佳时机。
但同样的逻辑下，你可能也会被诱惑去购买山寨币，因为它们对BTC有高Beta值，因此应该表现更好。即使对于某些山寨币来说确实如此，但在上一轮牛市中并没有完全如此。
大多数山寨币在2020年底的比特币上涨期间表现不如比特币，直到2021年初，它们突然开始腾飞。
好消息是，通过持有BTC和ETH直到牛市开始，你并没有真正错过超额收益。
如果历史重演，这就是我们应该期待的：BTC（也许也包括ETH）应该有一个自行起飞的时期，而山寨币涨幅落后，BTC市占率上升，然后突然轮动开始，那时山寨币开始疯狂上涨。
但我不认为这正是已经发生或将要发生的事情：过去几个月我们看到的是，$BTC 与 BTC 主导地位同时上涨，就像 2020 年一样，但这一次从 2023 年 6 月到现在，我们已经看到许多代币的表现优于 BTC。
BTC市占率
我的解释是：
对于长期投资者来说，2022年11月买入的底部是$BTC（和$ETH，即使事后看来，2023 年不触及 ETH 是最好的主意），而购买正确的山寨币的时间是在2023年6月左右
山寨币的表现存在很多差异：$ETH在2023年表现不如$BTC，一些旧的山寨币在过去几个月也表现不如$BTC，而某些山寨币的表现则大幅优于市场
尽管如此，我们还没有看到山寨币的狂热阶段，我预计这将在BTC突破其过去的最高价（69000）的时候进入完全的狂热的阶段。
大部分收益集中在几个月内
这些加密货币的大部分收益集中在相当短的时间内。几乎所有的表现都发生在几个月内，特别是在山寨币上。
例如，在上一轮牛市中，就是从2021年1月到5月，然后从8月到11月。市场处于“只涨不跌”的时期，这时你的新对手是那些已经放弃加密货币3年的零售投资者。
这些是你需要将100%的精力投入市场的关键时刻。有一个著名的GCR推文总结了你在这些时期需要做的事：
这里有几个例子让你意识到上涨是多么迅速和集中：
$CHZ：2021年2月至3月一个月内增长30倍
$BNB：2021年2月20天内增长8倍
$DOT：2021年1月至2月两个月内增长8倍
$SUSHI：2021年1月一个月内增长6倍
$AAVE：2021年1月一个月内增长6倍
$HOT：2021 年 2 月至 3 月 2 个月内增长 35 倍
$JOE：2021 年 8 月两周内增长 60 倍
不要让熊市带来的创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）剥夺你在牛市和山寨季获得疯狂收益的机会
如果这是你第一个市场周期，你很可能会太晚进入市场，让你的投资在不理智的估值中飙升而没有及时获利，然后在许多收益中来回徘徊。但是，如果你阅读了这篇文章，很可能你已经经历了上一个周期，并且挺过了2022年特别残酷的熊市。在熊市中，你必须对每一个上涨保持警惕，并准备好每次某个山寨币因为某种催化剂上涨时就开始做空。这种行为会得到奖励。但是，在牛市中，这一切完全改变了：币种比你想象的上涨得更高。你必须准备好从中获益。
以下是一些代币在 2021 年在相当短的时间内疯狂上涨的几个例子，以及达到的非常大的估值：
2021 年 1 月，$DOGE 一天内上涨了近 10 倍，当时它已经是价值十亿美元的代币
$THETA 的市值在3个月内从10亿美元上涨到120亿美元
$RUNE的市值在 5 个月内从 2 亿美元增至近 50 亿美元
$FIL 曾一度达到一个接近4000亿美元的FDV
$ICP 推出时有2500亿美元的FDV
$AXS 的市值从2亿美元上涨到100亿美元，用时5个月，其FDV在顶峰时为430亿美元
$GALA 的市值在2021年顶峰时达到了54亿美元，而年初时该项目的市值仅为500万美元
$TEL 的市值从1000万美元上涨到300亿美元（300倍），用时5个月
上次牛市期间加密货币总市值的演变
2021年周期主要的叙事，以及最佳收益：
DeFi 1.0：
DeFi 在2020年成为加密货币中的新事物，它提供了新的用例，并且是一种从无到有的新鲜事物。2020年夏天DeFi是市场的焦点，这就是为什么它被称为“DeFi Summer”，我们可以将其描述为牛市的开始（或者说是预开始）。
在整个事情中添加一个庞氏经济学（ponzinomics）方面，你就有了获得巨大收益的秘诀。具有强大基础的DeFi中的两个最大赢家是$AAVE和$SNX。从底部到顶部，这些的收益在500倍到1000倍之间。我们还可以提到$SUSHI，它在2020年11月到2021年3月之间增长了30倍。
Alt L1
L1 交易是加密货币中最持久的交易，也是上一个周期中最有价值的交易之一：这个交易的主要赢家是$SOL、$LUNA、$AVAX，但也包括$FTM、$ADA、$BNB、$EGLD。
市场对Alt L1赋予了非常高的溢价，这意味着平均而言，它们的价值（市值或FDV）高于其他类别，例如应用程序。一旦你知道了这一点，你就知道你必须接触这个叙事。很快人们就清楚地意识到，这是 2021 年牛市的主题之一，因为其中一些从一开始就几乎是表现最好的币，直到2022年5月的Terra-Luna崩溃。
这里的教训是：一旦你明白了周期的主要主题是什么，你就简单地顺其自然。第二个教训是：一层网络（Alt L1）交易永远不会消失。这在2021年是一个主导主题，但事实上在2017年就已经是这样了，而且在2023-2024年再次成为这样。
alt L1 生态系统剧本
在加密货币中，每当一个币种上涨时，交易者会寻找与上涨币种相关的代币，或者逻辑上应该跟随上涨的代币。这就是为什么，当一个L1网络币种上涨时，人们开始寻找这个网络“生态系统”中的所有代币，因为这些代币的市值较小，所以预期会更加剧烈地上涨，并且作为L1币种的“beta”。
通常，主要的生态系统币种就是该网络的主导去中心化交易所（DEX），而在上一个周期中，一些疯狂的收益就是在这里产生的：
例如，BSC 在 2021 年前 2 个月迎来了旺季，因此 $BNB 开始了从 40 美元到最高 700 美元的大幅上涨，而$CAKE，作为BSC上的主要DEX，基本上在一个月内上涨了50倍。对于一些交易者来说，$CAKE是他们整个2021年牛市中最好的交易。
第二个例子是在Avalanche生态系统中：像大多数币种一样，$AVAX在2021年初有一个强劲的开局，但在5月份大幅下跌（-70%），然后在2021年8月是恢复最强的币种之一。自然地，人们开始寻找beta币种，Avalanche DEX币种$JOE在两周内上涨了50倍。Pangolin ($PNG)是Avalanche上的另一个主要DEX，但其价格在同一时间内“仅”翻了4倍。
除了DEX外，你还可以考虑meme币、货币市场、永续DEX、CDP（超额抵押稳定币）、发射平台。我认为，现在在2024年，人们更倾向于“X链上的主要meme币”，而不是“X链上的主要dex”。
元宇宙
在2021年10月28日，Facebook宣布其品牌重塑为Meta，并且新公司的重点是“构建元宇宙”。这立即在加密货币市场引发了一波极端的投机浪潮：元宇宙狂热开始了。
有3个币种是这一叙事的领导者：$SAND、$MANA和$GALA。它们都在一个月内接近10倍的涨幅，而你唯一需要做的就是在Meta宣布其计划后购买它们，即使它们在消息发布后已经上涨了20%。
当时，市场正接近亢奋的顶峰，而随着 Meta 的宣布，传统金融和现实世界的新闻也随之而来，因此，这是一个非常强烈的叙事，并持续了一个月左右。
更重要的是，元宇宙与游戏密切相关，而一个主要的加密游戏，$AXS，在2021年夏天期间完全疯狂，游戏+元宇宙是另一个强大催化剂，因为然后人们开始寻找“下一个Axie Infinity”。
这里的教训是：了解加密之外的技术和现实世界趋势，因为在风险偏好环境中，如果一个技术趋势与加密有某种关系，它肯定会在加密中成为一个叙事，正如我们在这次元宇宙和游戏狂热中看到的。
2024年最像2021年元宇宙的叙事是AI：ChatGPT的推出并没有在市场处于牛市和整体AI叙事在时间上集中发生，所以没有出现一个月的全面AI狂热（与元宇宙狂热相反），但AI币在2023年1月至2月的泡沫期间表现非常好，这是当年最风险偏好的环境，然后AI币在2023年10月/11月再次表现良好，现在在2024年2月再次如此。
我认为许多AI币主要是虚拟软件，但我不想忽视一个在技术世界如此强大的叙事。这个周期中一些最疯狂的收益将来自AI板块。
Meme币
Meme币是上一个周期中表现最好的一些币种。$DOGE在2021年初以6亿美元的市值开始。在接下来的5个月中，得益于埃隆·马斯克的强力推广，直到它的顶峰，$DOGE的价格上涨了150倍，达到了巨大的900亿美元市值。
几个月后，发生了一次伟大的轮换，另一个以doge为主题的meme币$SHIB达到了400亿美元的市值，而2021年初的价值不到500万美元。
许多其他meme币达到了疯狂的估值：$SAFEMOON（在其顶峰时为170亿美元）、$ELON（超过10亿美元）、$AKITA（15亿美元）、$FLOKI（30亿美元）。
Meme肯定会继续存在，很可能是一些meme币将成为新周期中表现最好的币种。在加密货币中，推动价格的最主要不是基本面，而是叙事和投机，而meme币就是将这一点推向极端。
NFT
NFT是2021年牛市中一个完全新的加密货币类别和叙事（技术上讲，它不是新的，但对市场来说是新的），也是一些最疯狂的收益产生的地方。
当我们说“NFT”时，我们主要是指头像图片集合，第一个（也是OG）疯狂的是CryptoPunks，其地板价格从2021年1月的5 ETH跳升到3月的20 ETH，然后在夏天期间再次上涨到100 ETH！一年前，在2020年夏天，地板价格仅为1 ETH。
大量的NFT PFP系列已经推出，最成功的一个除了CryptoPunks显然是Bored Apes，但我们还可以提到Pudgy Penguins、Art Blocks（不是PFP系列）、Doodles、Cool Cats等。
关于周期的思考：如何玩转叙事轮换以最大化利润？
加密交易是一个从一个叙事到另一个叙事的轮换游戏，虽然几乎不可能准确抓住所有短期轮换，但我们可以记住一些教训。一些叙事在整个牛市期间保持强劲，例如L1网络交易从未停止，但大多数趋势持续大约1个月，这是第一件需要知道的事情。上涨的主要部分通常发生在几周到一个月的时间里，之后就会出现疲劳，市场的注意力转移到其他事物上。当然，这是一个非常粗略的模式，一些币种设法在连续几个月表现出色，但通常，如果人们连续一个月一直在谈论某件事（想想2021年11月的元宇宙），请注意这个趋势可能已经耗尽。
随着我们经历一个牛市，人们倾向于增加风险。这意味着牛市初期的主要叙事可能有一些强大的基本面，但随着时间的推移，交易者将寻找越来越多风险更高、收益更高、越来越没有道理的东西。
例如在2020-2021年，$LINK（强基本面）是熊市的最佳表现者，然后我们有了DeFi Summer，引入了一个新范式，那就是DeFi（强基本面），然后我们有了BTC涨势，然后在牛市的第一部分，一些DeFi币种是表现最好的（$AAVE、$SNX、$RUNE、$UNI）。
在接下来的几个月中，市场变得越来越投机，虚拟物品被高估到几十亿美元的 FDV（元宇宙、游戏），超高收益的纯庞氏经济学被视为法国的未来（Olympus DAO $OHM）。这时，当所有这些顶部信号出现在市场上时，你可能会寻求退出，或至少大幅降低风险。看到大量的加密游戏（例如通过发射台）以荒谬的估值（>10亿美元）推出，而它们除了承诺之外没有提供任何东西，这是一个好迹象，表明我们正在接近顶部。当然，对所有这些都要持保留态度，因为加密市场不断地变得degen（DeFi Summer已经是庞氏经济学，新的meme币不断被推出和交易等），如果你在寻找，你几乎可以在加密中随时找到“顶部信号”。
如果一枚硬币在熊市中表现最佳，那么它在整个牛市周期中的表现就不可能好于熊市。至少，2021 年的情况是这样，但这是一个独特的牛市，因为它明确分为两部分（2021年5月前和2021年7月后）。很多在熊市中表现强劲的币种都在 2021 年 5 月左右甚至之前触顶：$AAVE $SNX $RUNE $THETA $KSM $SUSHI。
在牛市的后半段，要寻找新的叙事方式（2021 年的元宇宙、NFT），并准备好接受那些越来越不合理、引入新型庞氏经济学并具有宗教信仰的事物（下一节将详细介绍）。
对于巨大的上涨……然后巨大抛售的迹象
加密倾向于放大许多人类的心理偏见和情绪，这通常是更极端上涨的催化剂，也是更极端抛售的催化剂。确定这样两个催化剂的例子似乎特别重要：
“主角”和对一些加密人物的崇拜
加密市场喜欢“主角”，这些主角经常被崇拜，并且会成为一些加密货币上涨的原因。你可以很容易地在2021年的一些上涨的币种背后找到一个中心人物：
SBF（Sam Bankman-Fried）被视为一个天才，这是$SOL（Sam是$SOL的看涨者和支持者）不可思议表现的原因之一，也是$FTT上涨的原因
CZ是币安领导者，这是$BNB成功的一部分
Su Zhu被视为神一样的投资者/交易者，管理着数十亿美元，他是Avalanche的看涨者，这也是$AVAX的催化剂
埃隆·马斯克是$DOGE上涨至近1000亿美元市值的主要原因之一
Do Kwon是Terra Luna的创始人，他的“自信”（至少可以这么说）可能在$LUNA的（最初）成功中发挥了作用
Richard Heart，$HEX背后的多彩人物，受到 Hexican 人的崇拜
Charles Hoskinson，Cardano之父，可能是$ADA达到巨大市值的主要原因之一
Andre Cronje，Fantom（$FTM）的中心人物，并共同创立了一些其他项目，被一些人视为天才
Daniele Sestagalli领导了3个疯狂上涨的项目：$TIME、$SPELL和$ICE
两种类型的主角脱颖而出：要么是“天才”，要么是“社区领袖/被社区崇拜”。记住这一点，为下一个牛市做准备。
宗教x庞氏=即将到来的上涨和抛售
第二和第三个催化剂是：宗教和“类庞氏”的代币经济学。有趣的是，这些通常会一起出现。庞氏经济学通常意味着非常高的收益，最终以某种形式不可持续。宗教更难解释，但几个例子将说明这一点：
Luna是最好的例子之一：Do Kwon是魅力四射的领导者，有一个明显的庞氏经济学成分，即UST上的20%Anchor收益，而且它有点像一个宗教，因为例如社区成员称自己为“Lunatics”，如果你挑战UST模型的可持续性，你会受到他们的反对和攻击
Olympus DAO ($OHM)：这个的主要催化剂是庞氏经济学，基本上是一个疯狂的高质押收益，你可能记得Olympus有一个领导者，他是一个叫“Zeus”的Twitter匿名者
Daniele Sestagalli的项目显然具有“degen特色”：Wonderland 是一款 Olympus 分叉，有更高的收益，而Abracadabra有一个“degenbox”产品，使人们能够循环他们的UST并获得一个杠杆化的Anchor收益，如果我没记错的话。围绕Daniele Sestagalli聚集的社区被称为“青蛙民族”……
编译：深潮TechFlow
我花了相当多的时间研究上一轮牛市、当时热门的不同叙事、利润最大化的轮动、2021年表现最佳的代币以及它们巨大收益背后的逻辑。
这个新周期不会和前一个完全相同，但我们应该记住许多教训，因为历史是相似的，尤其是在金融市场，大部分繁荣来自于人类大脑的思考方式，这是永远不会改变的。
让我们直接进入正题。
牛市的一般性经验
新币表现优异，旧币表现不佳
2021年牛市的一个显著趋势是旧币的表现不佳，2018 年周期中的币种几乎什么币在2021年中表现好的。
Ripple (XRP)、Stellar Lumens (XLM)、Bitcoin Cash (BCH)、NEO、XEM、IOTA、EOS、Dash、Monero (XMR)、Zcash (ZEC) 和 Tron (TRX) 从未再次达到它们之前的最高价格（以美元计），并且自2018年以来它们相对于BTC基本上只有下跌。
当然，除了BTC和ETH，主要旧币中唯一的好表现来自于BNB、Cardano (ADA)、Ethereum Classic (ETC) 和当然还有DOGE。
这是CoinMarketCap在2017年12月的排名截图。我强烈建议你查看这些历史快照的几个日期，以帮助你了解加密货币市场是如何 "轮动 "的。
大多数币种在牛市真正开始前都表现不如BTC
当我们处于熊市中期，认为我们接近底部时，显然是购买BTC和ETH并持有到下一个牛市的最佳时机。
但同样的逻辑下，你可能也会被诱惑去购买山寨币，因为它们对BTC有高Beta值，因此应该表现更好。即使对于某些山寨币来说确实如此，但在上一轮牛市中并没有完全如此。
大多数山寨币在2020年底的比特币上涨期间表现不如比特币，直到2021年初，它们突然开始腾飞。
好消息是，通过持有BTC和ETH直到牛市开始，你并没有真正错过超额收益。
如果历史重演，这就是我们应该期待的：BTC（也许也包括ETH）应该有一个自行起飞的时期，而山寨币涨幅落后，BTC市占率上升，然后突然轮动开始，那时山寨币开始疯狂上涨。
但我不认为这正是已经发生或将要发生的事情：过去几个月我们看到的是，$BTC 与 BTC 主导地位同时上涨，就像 2020 年一样，但这一次从 2023 年 6 月到现在，我们已经看到许多代币的表现优于 BTC。
BTC市占率
我的解释是：
对于长期投资者来说，2022年11月买入的底部是$BTC（和$ETH，即使事后看来，2023 年不触及 ETH 是最好的主意），而购买正确的山寨币的时间是在2023年6月左右
山寨币的表现存在很多差异：$ETH在2023年表现不如$BTC，一些旧的山寨币在过去几个月也表现不如$BTC，而某些山寨币的表现则大幅优于市场
尽管如此，我们还没有看到山寨币的狂热阶段，我预计这将在BTC突破其过去的最高价（69000）的时候进入完全的狂热的阶段。
大部分收益集中在几个月内
这些加密货币的大部分收益集中在相当短的时间内。几乎所有的表现都发生在几个月内，特别是在山寨币上。
例如，在上一轮牛市中，就是从2021年1月到5月，然后从8月到11月。市场处于“只涨不跌”的时期，这时你的新对手是那些已经放弃加密货币3年的零售投资者。
这些是你需要将100%的精力投入市场的关键时刻。有一个著名的GCR推文总结了你在这些时期需要做的事：
这里有几个例子让你意识到上涨是多么迅速和集中：
$CHZ：2021年2月至3月一个月内增长30倍
$BNB：2021年2月20天内增长8倍
$DOT：2021年1月至2月两个月内增长8倍
$SUSHI：2021年1月一个月内增长6倍
$AAVE：2021年1月一个月内增长6倍
$HOT：2021 年 2 月至 3 月 2 个月内增长 35 倍
$JOE：2021 年 8 月两周内增长 60 倍
不要让熊市带来的创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）剥夺你在牛市和山寨季获得疯狂收益的机会
如果这是你第一个市场周期，你很可能会太晚进入市场，让你的投资在不理智的估值中飙升而没有及时获利，然后在许多收益中来回徘徊。但是，如果你阅读了这篇文章，很可能你已经经历了上一个周期，并且挺过了2022年特别残酷的熊市。在熊市中，你必须对每一个上涨保持警惕，并准备好每次某个山寨币因为某种催化剂上涨时就开始做空。这种行为会得到奖励。但是，在牛市中，这一切完全改变了：币种比你想象的上涨得更高。你必须准备好从中获益。
以下是一些代币在 2021 年在相当短的时间内疯狂上涨的几个例子，以及达到的非常大的估值：
2021 年 1 月，$DOGE 一天内上涨了近 10 倍，当时它已经是价值十亿美元的代币
$THETA 的市值在3个月内从10亿美元上涨到120亿美元
$RUNE的市值在 5 个月内从 2 亿美元增至近 50 亿美元
$FIL 曾一度达到一个接近4000亿美元的FDV
$ICP 推出时有2500亿美元的FDV
$AXS 的市值从2亿美元上涨到100亿美元，用时5个月，其FDV在顶峰时为430亿美元
$GALA 的市值在2021年顶峰时达到了54亿美元，而年初时该项目的市值仅为500万美元
$TEL 的市值从1000万美元上涨到300亿美元（300倍），用时5个月
上次牛市期间加密货币总市值的演变
2021年周期主要的叙事，以及最佳收益：
DeFi 1.0：
DeFi 在2020年成为加密货币中的新事物，它提供了新的用例，并且是一种从无到有的新鲜事物。2020年夏天DeFi是市场的焦点，这就是为什么它被称为“DeFi Summer”，我们可以将其描述为牛市的开始（或者说是预开始）。
在整个事情中添加一个庞氏经济学（ponzinomics）方面，你就有了获得巨大收益的秘诀。具有强大基础的DeFi中的两个最大赢家是$AAVE和$SNX。从底部到顶部，这些的收益在500倍到1000倍之间。我们还可以提到$SUSHI，它在2020年11月到2021年3月之间增长了30倍。
Alt L1
L1 交易是加密货币中最持久的交易，也是上一个周期中最有价值的交易之一：这个交易的主要赢家是$SOL、$LUNA、$AVAX，但也包括$FTM、$ADA、$BNB、$EGLD。
市场对Alt L1赋予了非常高的溢价，这意味着平均而言，它们的价值（市值或FDV）高于其他类别，例如应用程序。一旦你知道了这一点，你就知道你必须接触这个叙事。很快人们就清楚地意识到，这是 2021 年牛市的主题之一，因为其中一些从一开始就几乎是表现最好的币，直到2022年5月的Terra-Luna崩溃。
这里的教训是：一旦你明白了周期的主要主题是什么，你就简单地顺其自然。第二个教训是：一层网络（Alt L1）交易永远不会消失。这在2021年是一个主导主题，但事实上在2017年就已经是这样了，而且在2023-2024年再次成为这样。
alt L1 生态系统剧本
在加密货币中，每当一个币种上涨时，交易者会寻找与上涨币种相关的代币，或者逻辑上应该跟随上涨的代币。这就是为什么，当一个L1网络币种上涨时，人们开始寻找这个网络“生态系统”中的所有代币，因为这些代币的市值较小，所以预期会更加剧烈地上涨，并且作为L1币种的“beta”。
通常，主要的生态系统币种就是该网络的主导去中心化交易所（DEX），而在上一个周期中，一些疯狂的收益就是在这里产生的：
例如，BSC 在 2021 年前 2 个月迎来了旺季，因此 $BNB 开始了从 40 美元到最高 700 美元的大幅上涨，而$CAKE，作为BSC上的主要DEX，基本上在一个月内上涨了50倍。对于一些交易者来说，$CAKE是他们整个2021年牛市中最好的交易。
第二个例子是在Avalanche生态系统中：像大多数币种一样，$AVAX在2021年初有一个强劲的开局，但在5月份大幅下跌（-70%），然后在2021年8月是恢复最强的币种之一。自然地，人们开始寻找beta币种，Avalanche DEX币种$JOE在两周内上涨了50倍。Pangolin ($PNG)是Avalanche上的另一个主要DEX，但其价格在同一时间内“仅”翻了4倍。
除了DEX外，你还可以考虑meme币、货币市场、永续DEX、CDP（超额抵押稳定币）、发射平台。我认为，现在在2024年，人们更倾向于“X链上的主要meme币”，而不是“X链上的主要dex”。
元宇宙
在2021年10月28日，Facebook宣布其品牌重塑为Meta，并且新公司的重点是“构建元宇宙”。这立即在加密货币市场引发了一波极端的投机浪潮：元宇宙狂热开始了。
有3个币种是这一叙事的领导者：$SAND、$MANA和$GALA。它们都在一个月内接近10倍的涨幅，而你唯一需要做的就是在Meta宣布其计划后购买它们，即使它们在消息发布后已经上涨了20%。
当时，市场正接近亢奋的顶峰，而随着 Meta 的宣布，传统金融和现实世界的新闻也随之而来，因此，这是一个非常强烈的叙事，并持续了一个月左右。
更重要的是，元宇宙与游戏密切相关，而一个主要的加密游戏，$AXS，在2021年夏天期间完全疯狂，游戏+元宇宙是另一个强大催化剂，因为然后人们开始寻找“下一个Axie Infinity”。
这里的教训是：了解加密之外的技术和现实世界趋势，因为在风险偏好环境中，如果一个技术趋势与加密有某种关系，它肯定会在加密中成为一个叙事，正如我们在这次元宇宙和游戏狂热中看到的。
2024年最像2021年元宇宙的叙事是AI：ChatGPT的推出并没有在市场处于牛市和整体AI叙事在时间上集中发生，所以没有出现一个月的全面AI狂热（与元宇宙狂热相反），但AI币在2023年1月至2月的泡沫期间表现非常好，这是当年最风险偏好的环境，然后AI币在2023年10月/11月再次表现良好，现在在2024年2月再次如此。
我认为许多AI币主要是虚拟软件，但我不想忽视一个在技术世界如此强大的叙事。这个周期中一些最疯狂的收益将来自AI板块。
Meme币
Meme币是上一个周期中表现最好的一些币种。$DOGE在2021年初以6亿美元的市值开始。在接下来的5个月中，得益于埃隆·马斯克的强力推广，直到它的顶峰，$DOGE的价格上涨了150倍，达到了巨大的900亿美元市值。
几个月后，发生了一次伟大的轮换，另一个以doge为主题的meme币$SHIB达到了400亿美元的市值，而2021年初的价值不到500万美元。
许多其他meme币达到了疯狂的估值：$SAFEMOON（在其顶峰时为170亿美元）、$ELON（超过10亿美元）、$AKITA（15亿美元）、$FLOKI（30亿美元）。
Meme肯定会继续存在，很可能是一些meme币将成为新周期中表现最好的币种。在加密货币中，推动价格的最主要不是基本面，而是叙事和投机，而meme币就是将这一点推向极端。
NFT
NFT是2021年牛市中一个完全新的加密货币类别和叙事（技术上讲，它不是新的，但对市场来说是新的），也是一些最疯狂的收益产生的地方。
当我们说“NFT”时，我们主要是指头像图片集合，第一个（也是OG）疯狂的是CryptoPunks，其地板价格从2021年1月的5 ETH跳升到3月的20 ETH，然后在夏天期间再次上涨到100 ETH！一年前，在2020年夏天，地板价格仅为1 ETH。
大量的NFT PFP系列已经推出，最成功的一个除了CryptoPunks显然是Bored Apes，但我们还可以提到Pudgy Penguins、Art Blocks（不是PFP系列）、Doodles、Cool Cats等。
关于周期的思考：如何玩转叙事轮换以最大化利润？
加密交易是一个从一个叙事到另一个叙事的轮换游戏，虽然几乎不可能准确抓住所有短期轮换，但我们可以记住一些教训。一些叙事在整个牛市期间保持强劲，例如L1网络交易从未停止，但大多数趋势持续大约1个月，这是第一件需要知道的事情。上涨的主要部分通常发生在几周到一个月的时间里，之后就会出现疲劳，市场的注意力转移到其他事物上。当然，这是一个非常粗略的模式，一些币种设法在连续几个月表现出色，但通常，如果人们连续一个月一直在谈论某件事（想想2021年11月的元宇宙），请注意这个趋势可能已经耗尽。
随着我们经历一个牛市，人们倾向于增加风险。这意味着牛市初期的主要叙事可能有一些强大的基本面，但随着时间的推移，交易者将寻找越来越多风险更高、收益更高、越来越没有道理的东西。
例如在2020-2021年，$LINK（强基本面）是熊市的最佳表现者，然后我们有了DeFi Summer，引入了一个新范式，那就是DeFi（强基本面），然后我们有了BTC涨势，然后在牛市的第一部分，一些DeFi币种是表现最好的（$AAVE、$SNX、$RUNE、$UNI）。
在接下来的几个月中，市场变得越来越投机，虚拟物品被高估到几十亿美元的 FDV（元宇宙、游戏），超高收益的纯庞氏经济学被视为法国的未来（Olympus DAO $OHM）。这时，当所有这些顶部信号出现在市场上时，你可能会寻求退出，或至少大幅降低风险。看到大量的加密游戏（例如通过发射台）以荒谬的估值（>10亿美元）推出，而它们除了承诺之外没有提供任何东西，这是一个好迹象，表明我们正在接近顶部。当然，对所有这些都要持保留态度，因为加密市场不断地变得degen（DeFi Summer已经是庞氏经济学，新的meme币不断被推出和交易等），如果你在寻找，你几乎可以在加密中随时找到“顶部信号”。
如果一枚硬币在熊市中表现最佳，那么它在整个牛市周期中的表现就不可能好于熊市。至少，2021 年的情况是这样，但这是一个独特的牛市，因为它明确分为两部分（2021年5月前和2021年7月后）。很多在熊市中表现强劲的币种都在 2021 年 5 月左右甚至之前触顶：$AAVE $SNX $RUNE $THETA $KSM $SUSHI。
在牛市的后半段，要寻找新的叙事方式（2021 年的元宇宙、NFT），并准备好接受那些越来越不合理、引入新型庞氏经济学并具有宗教信仰的事物（下一节将详细介绍）。
对于巨大的上涨……然后巨大抛售的迹象
加密倾向于放大许多人类的心理偏见和情绪，这通常是更极端上涨的催化剂，也是更极端抛售的催化剂。确定这样两个催化剂的例子似乎特别重要：
“主角”和对一些加密人物的崇拜
加密市场喜欢“主角”，这些主角经常被崇拜，并且会成为一些加密货币上涨的原因。你可以很容易地在2021年的一些上涨的币种背后找到一个中心人物：
SBF（Sam Bankman-Fried）被视为一个天才，这是$SOL（Sam是$SOL的看涨者和支持者）不可思议表现的原因之一，也是$FTT上涨的原因
CZ是币安领导者，这是$BNB成功的一部分
Su Zhu被视为神一样的投资者/交易者，管理着数十亿美元，他是Avalanche的看涨者，这也是$AVAX的催化剂
埃隆·马斯克是$DOGE上涨至近1000亿美元市值的主要原因之一
Do Kwon是Terra Luna的创始人，他的“自信”（至少可以这么说）可能在$LUNA的（最初）成功中发挥了作用
Richard Heart，$HEX背后的多彩人物，受到 Hexican 人的崇拜
Charles Hoskinson，Cardano之父，可能是$ADA达到巨大市值的主要原因之一
Andre Cronje，Fantom（$FTM）的中心人物，并共同创立了一些其他项目，被一些人视为天才
Daniele Sestagalli领导了3个疯狂上涨的项目：$TIME、$SPELL和$ICE
两种类型的主角脱颖而出：要么是“天才”，要么是“社区领袖/被社区崇拜”。记住这一点，为下一个牛市做准备。
宗教x庞氏=即将到来的上涨和抛售
第二和第三个催化剂是：宗教和“类庞氏”的代币经济学。有趣的是，这些通常会一起出现。庞氏经济学通常意味着非常高的收益，最终以某种形式不可持续。宗教更难解释，但几个例子将说明这一点：
Luna是最好的例子之一：Do Kwon是魅力四射的领导者，有一个明显的庞氏经济学成分，即UST上的20%Anchor收益，而且它有点像一个宗教，因为例如社区成员称自己为“Lunatics”，如果你挑战UST模型的可持续性，你会受到他们的反对和攻击
Olympus DAO ($OHM)：这个的主要催化剂是庞氏经济学，基本上是一个疯狂的高质押收益，你可能记得Olympus有一个领导者，他是一个叫“Zeus”的Twitter匿名者
Daniele Sestagalli的项目显然具有“degen特色”：Wonderland 是一款 Olympus 分叉，有更高的收益，而Abracadabra有一个“degenbox”产品，使人们能够循环他们的UST并获得一个杠杆化的Anchor收益，如果我没记错的话。围绕Daniele Sestagalli聚集的社区被称为“青蛙民族”……
