Reasons Why Isaac Newton Lost Money in the Stock Market.

In the last post I told how Isaac Newton lost a significant amount of money during the South Sea Company boom in the early 18th century.
There were several reasons for his defeats:

Speculation:
Newton invested in the South Sea Company, a British trading company that was involved in trade with South America. Like many others at the time, Newton was lured by the promise of quick profits and speculative gains.

Market Hype:
The South Sea Company's stock was heavily promoted and hyped by brokers and promoters, leading to a speculative frenzy. Newton may have been influenced by the widespread optimism and exaggerated expectations surrounding the company's prospects.

Lack of Diversification:
Newton invested a significant portion of his wealth in the South Sea Company, effectively putting most of his eggs in one basket. This lack of diversification left him vulnerable to the risks of a market downturn.

Overconfidence:
Despite his brilliance as a mathematician and scientist, Newton was not immune to the psychological biases that affect
investors. His overconfidence in his ability to predict market movements may have clouded his judgment and led him to underestimate the risks involved.

Misinformation:
Newton may have been misled by false or misleading information about the South Sea Company's financial health and prospects. Like many investors during speculative bubbles, he may have relied on inaccurate or exaggerated reports from brokers and promoters.

Herding Behavior:
Newton may have succumbed to the herd mentality that often
characterizes speculative bubbles. Seeing others profiting from
investments in the South Sea Company, he may have felt pressure to join the crowd and fear of missing out on potential gains.

Ultimately, Newton's experience serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of speculative investing, herd behavior, and the importance of conducting thorough research and maintaining a diversified portfolio.

Bitcoin reserves are being depleted too quickly.

Bitcoin reserves on all centralized exchanges are depleting too quickly. There are only 2 million bitcoins left, and with a daily influx of $500 million into spot bitcoin ETFs, 7,142 coins will leave the sites every day. As a result, it will take only nine months to use up all remaining reserves.

According to the data, bitcoin holdings on centralized exchanges fell to a nearly three-year low of 1.94 million $BTC .

How Isaac Newton Lost $3 Million Dollars in the “South Sea Bubble” of 1720: Even Geniuses Can’t Prevail Against the Machinations of the Markets.

Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million today). For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.

The great scientist was chasing hot performance as desperately as a day trader in 2004 or many bitcoin buyers in 2024.

Crypto Liquidations

The cryptocurrency market has seen a series of large-scale liquidations caused by panic selling. The total amount of positions liquidated exceeded $2 billion.

Nearly $1.5 billion worth of long positions have been liquidated since Friday, while short positions totaled about $500 million. The wave of sales continued on Saturday, when the market experienced another liquidation worth $950 billion.
The largest single liquidation order, worth $8.46 million, was recorded on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange.

Many attribute the current situation to recent geopolitical events such as tensions between Iran and Israel.
However, some analysts believe that the current decline may be temporary and represents an opportunity for long-term investors to purchase crypto assets at lower prices.

Uniswap Ready to Fight Back!

Uniswap Labs received a Wells notice informing them that the SEC was considering taking enforcement action against them.

Uniswap Ready to Fight Back the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Uniswap's COO Mary-Catherine Lader and Chief Legal Officer Marvin Ammori informed journalists that the Wells notice primarily focused on allegations of Uniswap operating as an unregistered securities broker and exchange.

Ammori expressed his belief that Uniswap does not currently meet the SEC's criteria for an exchange. He also referenced a recent court ruling in the SEC's case against Coinbase, where a judge determined that Coinbase Wallet was not a broker, which could end well for Uniswap's defense against similar charges.

Uniswap expressed disappointment that the SEC is focusing on protecting opaque systems rather than consumers.
The company believes the SEC is stifling innovation and unfairly targeting legitimate DeFi businesses.
They claim that the tokens they are offering are not securities and add that the Uniswap community will have to fight the US government agency in court. #UNI📈 #Uniswap

When is Ton coin listing on Binance?
Ton coin is one of the most anticipated cryptocurrencies on the market. Created by the Telegram team, this cryptocurrency promises to revolutionize the world of finance and blockchain technology.
Currently, Ton coin is already available on many exchanges, but listing on Binance would be a significant boost to the status of the cryptocurrency and will attract additional interest from investors.
The listing date on the Binance exchange for the Ton coin cryptocurrency will depend on many factors, including the decision of the exchange and the readiness of the project, and remains unknown for now. However, based on previous experiences and analysis of the market situation, it can be assumed that the listing date of Ton coin on Binance may be in the next few months.
The Binance exchange has its own criteria for listing new cryptocurrencies. These include trading volume, market capitalization, liquidity and regulatory compliance of the project.
Also, in order to be listed on Binance, the Ton coin project must go through an audit and verification process, which can take a significant amount of time. This is an important step that guarantees the security and reliability of the token.
It is important to note that the official information about the listing date of Ton coin on Binance will be announced by the project team and the exchange. Users can follow updates on the official Ton coin website, on the official Binance blog and on the official social networks of the project.
#ton

Before the parabolic rally, Bitcoin gave a buy signal. Over the last couple of days, Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating below the $70,000 mark, while before the halving, crypto market participants remained Mu are filled with bullish sentiment and expect sharp growth. Analysis by a cryptocurrency expert showed that the current phase of consolidation around the previous historical maximum of $69,000 is a clear signal to buy. According to the analyst, this may be the last opportunity to make a profitable purchase before the start of the rally.

Bitcoin fell below $68,000 amid the publication of inflation data in the United States.
At the moment the asset reached the level of $67,559.
In March 2024, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States in annual terms was 3.5%. Against this background, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drawdown, reaching $67,559 at the moment.
In monthly terms, according to the US Department of Labor, inflation accelerated by 0.4%. This is significantly higher than the value from February 2024.
At the time of writing, the asset is trading below around $67,730.

Solana will begin rewarding validators for faster transaction processing.
Solana blockchain validators overwhelmingly (98%) approved the initiative, which will introduce the Timely Vote Credits mechanism and speed up the transaction confirmation process. The proposal will change the approach to incentivizing validators to participate in consensus voting. Thus, validators will be awarded more points for sending votes with less delay.
According to Solana Labs, until now, validators have always been awarded one point for participating in consensus voting on blocks of transactions processed by the network. Over time, validators discovered that they could maximize profits by delaying casting their vote to ensure that their approval of a transaction would not lead to network splits and penalties.
Solana Labs explained that the Timely Vote Credits initiative will prevent validators from deliberately being late, since the delay will reduce the number of points that can be earned for participating in consensus voting.
It is not yet known what impact the new mechanism will have. It is expected that it will be implemented some time after the Solana v1.18 update, scheduled for April of this year. The update includes fixes to address issues with priority transaction processing fees and network congestion.

Prospects for altcoins.
“During the Bitcoin rally of recent months, altcoins generally did not show outpacing growth. Mostly fresh coins that did not have much selling pressure from investors who were stuck with them in 2021–2022 performed well. But most of the top coins of the last cycle are still far from reaching historical highs.”

Ethereum, being the second largest and most important cryptocurrency, is currently trading at multi-year lows relative to Bitcoin. This, in the trader's estimation, is always a good market marker.

Already now it makes sense to allocate 30–50% of capital to altcoins in order not to miss a possible rally before halving. And keep the rest until the end of spring - beginning of summer. — If Bitcoin goes into a correction, you need to wait for the prices of interesting coins to reach strong daily and weekly levels and gradually build your portfolios based on them. Most coins with strong fundamentals are able to show gains in the region of 300-500% relative to current prices in the current market cycle.

How will the cryptocurrency market behave?

In the short term, we can expect spikes in the price of Bitcoin up to new historical highs, but after the halving there may well be a period of market cooling. Volatility will “increase significantly” in the coming month. You need to be careful when placing positions - both long and short.
Locally, the very fact of halving can become a fact of “sell the news event”. This means that an event that everyone is waiting for as a positive factor, upon completion, can become the end of a local rally and “the starting point of a healthy market correction.”

At what $BTC exchange rate will mining be profitable?

In order for Bitcoin mining to remain profitable after the April halving, its price must remain above $80 thousand, writes Cointelegraph, citing an analysis by the head of the QryptoQuant analytical platform, Ki Young Ju.

How does halving affect the Bitcoin price?
There is no direct connection, but there is historical data. For example, in 2012, Bitcoin rose in price by about 8,000% in the year after the halving, and after the 2016 halving, by almost 1,000%. The last halving in May 2020 was followed by a bullish market period that culminated in Bitcoin reaching an all-time high price of around $69,000 in November 2021. However, the market is directly and indirectly influenced by many more factors. At the same time as the crypto market, other risky assets were growing.

During the week from April 1 to April 7, Bitcoin traded in the range of $64,500 - $71,400. The technical picture remains favorable for buyers. The risk of implementing the “double top” model and the possibility of falling to $60 thousand has noticeably decreased. At the same time, expectations of halving and increased demand from institutional investors create favorable conditions for growth in the near term.