There's Still Downside Potential!

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Avoid entering the mid-range for now. If you've seen my posts from Saturday and Sunday, you'll notice I clearly stated that Friday wasn't a crash and we were not experiencing a dip; there's still potential for further decline.

Here's my rationale:

Since February, the overall crypto market cap has fluctuated between $2.13 trillion and $2.6 trillion on a weekly basis. The $2.6 trillion mark has proven to be a robust resistance level, as I've repeatedly cautioned against getting swept up in parabolic bull run hype until this resistance is breached.

Currently, the total crypto market cap sits at $2.34 trillion, firmly entrenched within a well-established and consistent range. Recent price action indicates that the market is factoring in two or fewer interest rate cuts this year, likely beginning in September.

The Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions carry immense significance due to the implications for carry trading. Maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period could potentially reverse progress in struggling economies, as substantial funds may flow from lower-interest rate economies to higher-interest rate ones like the US, exacerbating liquidity drains in economies in need. The resulting inflationary pressures could necessitate further interest rate hikes.

The actions of European countries and Canada in lowering their rates have underscored the importance of the Federal Reserve's stance.

I acknowledge this analysis delves into macroeconomic territory, but these are precisely the factors influencing large funds' decisions, contributing to the current unpredictability in both the economy and the crypto market. This uncertainty is likely to persist until after the elections or until the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates.