๐ Has the Bear Phase in the Crypto Market Ended?
๐ Excessive accumulated futures positions led to massive liquidations even before the approval of ETFs. We witnessed speculative movements. Currently, we observe a slight softening of BTC amid the normalization process of excessively profitable wallets. But how long will this continue? What awaits crypto investors by the end of January?
๐ธ Earlier today, the BTC price dropped to $41,718. This decline, which triggered altcoin sell-offs overall, was caused by the audacity of excessively profitable investors. When investors believed that prices should fall if there is no mass growth after the approval of ETFs, they shifted to selling, leading to the fall of BTC. We live in interesting times.
๐ Even more interesting is that the support level at $41,800 is being tested for the sixth time in about the last four weeks. One of these tests was related to the Matrixport report, stating that spot Bitcoin ETFs without fundamental support could be approved in the second quarter. Despite the approval, BTC, which fell to $40,700, is holding at the $42,700 mark.
๐ While the sixth test of support and its current holding seem positive, the size of the subsequent rebound will be crucial for the future.
๐ผ Some analysts remain cautious due to the transfer of 1 billion BTC to exchanges, as reported by CryptoQuant. In their opinion, this outflow of miners became a fundamental reason for the decline. Bitcoin miners, who need to maintain strong cash reserves, seem to remember the tough days when they began selling at satisfactory levels while continuing to operate with high profitability.
๐ We observed an increase in the additional premium due to excessive demand for options amid the excitement around ETFs. At the moment, since the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, we see that the BTC futures premium remains below 9% in the neutral zone, unlike the growing trend that continued until January 15. This suggests that the days of excessive demand may end, and the appetite will change depending on the ETF entry.
