According to U.Today, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin will surpass the gold market cap once ETFs have completed their role. Woo suggests that the recently launched Bitcoin ETFs could potentially bring Bitcoin price targets to $91,000 at the bear market bottom and $650,000 at the bull market top. These targets, however, may not be achievable in this cycle due to the lengthy process of capital deployments.
Woo's forecast is based on the assumption that the $100 trillion managed by asset managers typically has a 2% allocation recommendation. This would result in an estimated $2 trillion potential allocation into Bitcoin, a figure that Woo believes could increase over time. Currently, Bitcoin holds $561,159,959 of investment, according to on-chain data. An inflow of $2 trillion would raise this amount to over $2.56 trillion.
Using the MVRV to calculate market cap versus money invested, which is a ratio of 5x in bull market tops and 0.7x in bear market bottoms, this would translate to market capitalizations of $12.8 trillion and $1.8 trillion, respectively. This would equate to $650,000 and $91,000 for the Bitcoin price in bull and bear market scenarios, respectively.
Excluding other self-custody inflows, Woo is of the opinion that Bitcoin could indeed surpass gold capitalization by the time the asset manager capital is deployed. Given that gold experienced a 12-year bull run after its ETF was approved, Bitcoin may follow a similar trajectory.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.49% in the last 24 hours to $64,524. Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market has reached a three-year high, reflecting strong demand for U.S. exchange-traded funds that hold the largest digital asset, as well as a challenging era for smaller tokens. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin accounted for about 55% of the $2.4 trillion cryptocurrency market as of the end of last week, a level not seen since April 2021.