Here’s a summary of the evolving crypto market trends over the years, highlighting how strategies and opportunities have shifted across cycles:
2017 (ICO Era): Public fundraising (via ICOs) largely replaced traditional VC and PE investment. This bull market favored OG platforms and proxy investments. Simply participating in the right projects often guaranteed profits.
2021 (DeFi & IEO Era): The rise of DeFi led to a more diverse and fragmented market. Success depended on quick execution. IEOs at the time often involved negotiating with project teams to allocate shares to users, resulting in low initial pricing and a "buy new, not old" approach.
Post-IEO Shift: As IEOs began facing legal scrutiny in many countries, they transitioned to airdrops or market pricing. Projects with large circulations and low opening prices performed more steadily (e.g., BB and Lista). However, compared to 2021, the pace was too fast, and a proper market consolidation process was lacking.
2024 (BTC ETF & Institutional Influence): This rally was driven by the BTC ETF launch. Major players, such as king-tier projects and Lumao Studio, collaborated to create impressive growth. With strong VC backing (valuations often exceeding billions), projects had more confidence and user bases to sustain them. Whether through centralized exchanges (CEXs), decentralized exchanges (DEXs), or proprietary chains, projects had multiple options for listing and funding. However, the lack of pricing power from exchanges meant that fundamentals—such as token circulation and not just market cap—became critical to evaluate.
Current Market Dynamics: The infighting among entities like Lumao Studio and L2 projects reflects a market shift, potentially marking the end of the Lumao era. Both primary and secondary markets now host more professional participants with advanced tools for risk management, which has expanded market size but also increased competition.
For retail investors, strategies from previous eras—such as ICOs (2017), IEOs (2021), and even the speculative approaches of 2023—may no longer be effective in today’s market.
A Healthier Market?: The current lack of VC investment and reduced project proliferation could suggest a healthier market. However, each cycle sees a handful of projects endure across bull and bear markets, while many seemingly promising ones fade away. Whether in web2 or web3, successful startups are rare, and those that survive multiple cycles are rarer still.
Ultimately, the crypto market remains highly risky. Approach investment cautiously and always evaluate fundamentals thoroughly.