$BTC Current Market Observations:
Trend: The price is below the moving averages (MA7, MA25, MA99), indicating a short-term downtrend.
MACD: The histogram is in negative territory, but there is a slight reduction in bearish momentum, suggesting possible consolidation or a small rebound.
Support and Resistance:
Nearest support: $95,734.77 (recent low).
Nearest resistance: $96,465.45 (MA7 level).
Volume: Slight increase in buying volume in the last few candles, but not enough to confirm a reversal yet.
Trading Strategy
1. Long Position
Entry Point: Wait for a breakout above the $96,465 level (MA7). Ensure strong buying volume supports the move.
Take Profit (TP):
First target: $97,020 (MA25 level).
Second target: $97,736 (MA99 level).
Stop Loss (SL): $95,500 (below the recent low of $95,734).
Plan if Signal Fails (Plan B):
If the price reverses below $95,500, close the long position immediately and switch to a short strategy.
2. Short Position
Entry Point: Enter if the price breaks below $95,734 with high selling pressure.
Take Profit (TP):
First target: $95,000 (psychological level).
Second target: $94,500 (next major support).
Stop Loss (SL): $96,500 (above the recent resistance).
Plan if Signal Fails (Plan C):
If the price closes above $96,500, exit the short trade to minimize losses and look for long opportunities.
Trade Duration
These setups are based on a 15-minute timeframe and are short-term trades, typically lasting a few hours to a maximum of 1 day.
Contingency Plans (Multi-Scenario Approach)
Plan A: Follow the primary trend (downtrend for now). Enter a short position below $95,734 with a tight stop loss and scale out profits as the price drops.
Plan B: If a long breakout occurs (above $96,465), pivot to long trades but remain cautious and monitor resistance levels closely.
Plan C: If price consolidates sideways without clear direction, avoid entering trades and wait for a breakout.
Plan D: Use alerts and closely watch for divergences on the MACD or unexpected volume spikes to indicate a trend reversal.
