š„š„š„Read carefully! USA Macroeconomic Data!!! š„š„š„
Today, important macroeconomic reports were released. Letās review them and determine how they might impact the markets, the economy, future Fed decisions, and investor sentiment.
ā”ļø Initial Jobless Claims
āŗ Previous report: 242K
āŗ Expectations: 243K
ā Actual: 227K
āļø Commentary on the data: The decline in claims reflects the strength of the labor market, indicating stability in the U.S. economy. This significantly reduces the risks of a "crash" or "recession" and boosts investor sentiment. However, it might force the Fed to slow down rate cuts (a "soft landing" for the economy), which could put short-term pressure on markets and strengthen the dollar.
ā”ļø Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
āŗ Previous report: 47.3
āŗ Expectations: 47.5
ā Actual: 47.8
āļø Commentary on the data: The data came in higher than expected and the previous report, but still below 50. Any reading below 50 indicates "contraction in activity." As a result, business activity is "slowing down" (inflation is easing), but not fast enough to worry about an impending "recession" (which may be seen as positive by markets).
ā Conclusion: The economy continues to remain "stable" leading up to the elections, with a slowdown in growth but a strong labor market. The situation is following the trajectory of ideal data and a soft landing, as previously mentioned. Stability and confidence should positively influence market growth in Q4 and the pre-holiday rally. Investors are not spooked by the strong economy and still expect a rate cut on November 7 at the Fed meeting. The dollar index has stopped rising, allowing markets to begin rallying, as I mentioned in my review! ā¤ļø
āļø Fasten your seatbelts, big moves ahead ššš¤