The stakes are sky high ahead of the US electorate’s vote on November 5.
Bernstein once painted the US election as a choice between Bitcoin reaching $90,000 under Donald Trump or the cryptocurrency plunging to $30,000 with Kamala Harris.
The Wall Street research firm has since changed its tune, saying”momentum should continue regardless of election outcome.”
That’s a dramatic about-face.
The 180 comes on the back of the industry’s $204 million spending spree to sway crypto-friendly politicians in Washington.
With both Republicans and Democrats now making genial overtures towards the sector, one could argue that they’ve gotten exactly what they’ve paid for.
A crypto election
The amount of money put into the industry’s lobbying efforts — as well as the more than $1 billion placed on election bets on crypto gambling platform Polymarket — highlight the importance of the crypto sector in the election.
Under Joe Biden’s term as president, Democrats talked up their anti-crypto army; supported the “off-ramping of crypto companies” during the 2023 banking crisis; and endorsed Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler’s anti-crypto campaign, Bernstein noted last week.
The SEC’s data shows it has brought some 158 cases against firms and individuals involving crypto. Over half of these were levied under Gensler.
In Trump, crypto pundits saw an end to that campaign. The former president has loudly thrown his weight behind crypto. Among other things, he’s pledged to create a national Bitcoin stockpile, and to send Gensler packing.
That created the origin of the Trump Trade. This summer, the narrative that his winning the White House for a second term would propel Bitcoin gained momentum.
Then Biden bowed out, making Harris his heir apparent. Her campaign saw her quickly overtake Trump in the polls. To some, like Lekker Capital Co-Founder Quinn Thompson, that was the end of the Trump Trade.
They argued that other factors — like the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates or conflict in the Middle East — had a bigger impact than whoever ended up in the Oval Office.
Harris didn’t say anything about crypto in the first two months of her campaign, an indicator that she might continue the Biden Administration’s crypto crackdown.
That’s changing. Last week, Harris said that she’s backing the development of digital assets. While some industry pundits labelled the comments as “hollow words,” they “did feel some relief with both candidates signalling support,” Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia wrote.
They added, however, that “crypto market sentiment under a Trump win would be stronger, since it would indicate a fresh policy start and likely broader regulatory support.”
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin dropped by 1.1% over the past 24 hours to trade at $62,901.
Ethereum dropped by 1% to $2,583.
What we’ are reading
Bitcoin’s price seen hitting record as soon as this week: ‘Expect fireworks’ — DL News
$1.1B Celestia Token Release to Boost October’s Crypto Unlocks to Nearly $2B — Milk Road
BlackRock Exec Says Ethereum Narrative Is Less Easy to Digest: Report — Unchained
MicroStrategy’s Stellar Performance Won’t Lead to S&P 500 Inclusion Anytime Soon — Milk Road
UK regulators open sandbox to unlock a $14tn tokenisation bonanza — DL News
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
