LAST WEEK RECAP:
The U.S. CPI increased 0.2% Month over Month in August, the same as expected. The annual rate is 2.5%, which is lower than the expected 2.6% and the lowest since February 2021.
U.S. Core CPI increased 0.3% MoM in August vs. 0.2% expected. And 3.2% YoY, the same as estimates.
U.S. PPI increased 0.2% MoM in August, the same as estimates. Core PPI increased by 0.3% MoM, slightly higher than the 0.2% expected. The annual PPI and Core PPI increase was 1.7% and 3.2%, respectively.
Most debate watchers agreed Harris outperformed Trump in the U.S. presidential debate, although crypto was not mentioned. Polymarket shows Trump winning odds at 49% and Harris at 51%.
Grayscale launched XRP trust in the US.
Spot BTC ETF recorded four days of net inflows in the last week.
MicroStrategy purchased another 18,300 BTC between August 6 and September 12, an average of $60,408. As for now, MicroStrategy holds 244,800 BTC, an average of $38,585.
Binance introduced Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) and Catizen(CATI) on Launchpool.
Trump safe after being targeted in a second apparent assassination attempt in Florida.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY
DXY is still consolidating on a range low. With the first rate cut expected this week, volatility will likely pick up.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX
VIX has retraced again to levels below 21 after the intermediate spike. This morning, there was a small rise, likely related to the rate cut uncertainty this week.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW
BTC closed right at 59k. Ideally, this bounce leads to a first higher high, and we see a trend reversal from the ranging/downtrend we’ve been in since March.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW
ETH is still a lot weaker than BTC. For now, the effect of the ETF has been weak, and the ETH/BTC ratio is failing to gain any reversal.
ETH/BTC
ETH/BTC is falling back into the previous range. It's already dropping under the August liquidation wick without proper reaction/bounce. The ETH/BTC ratio is still in a heavy downtrend that’s been accelerating since the ETF launch.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH
Alts are still building a big base, and some select ones are already rallying every time BTC stabilizes.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH
TOTAL3/BTC is still stable but failing to pick up momentum. However, some select outliers have been rallying. To get a wider run, we still think that ETH/BTC needs to pick up strength.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC pairs are showing a lot of relative strength. With Q4 seasonality-wise being strong months for altcoins, it seems they’re setting up to repeat that, given BTC can stabilize.