Bitcoin (BTC) analysts are eying a breakout point in the coming weeks, but market sentiment and historical data threaten more potential downside in September.

Bitcoin nears breakout point: analyst

Bitcoin’s price could be setting up for a rally based on a bullish divergence forming on the daily chart, according to crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto.

The analyst wrote in a Sept. 13 X post:

“Bitcoin is nearing the breaking point out of the range.”

Bitcoin/USD, 1-day chart, bullish divergence. Source: Mikybull Crypto

A bullish divergence is a technical formation used by traders to identify strengthening market momentum following lower lows. The indicator is associated with price reversals from downtrends.

Bitcoin also retested a key support level, which could result in a price breakout to above $92,000, according to popular analyst Titan of Crypto, who wrote in a Sept. 13 X post:

“In previous cycles, when the price retested the 50-week simple moving average, it bounced at least 40%. On average, the bounce was 71%. If BTC rallies 71% from here, it could reach $92,000.”

BTC.USD, 1-week chart. Source: Titan of Crypto

‘Anxiety stage’ before BTC price breakout?

Bitcoin has entered the “anxiety stage” based on the net unrealized profit-to-loss ratio, according to CryptoQuant contributing analyst Axel Adler. In other words, many short-term investors are underwater, which could mark a potential bottom, as highlighted in the chart below.

The analyst wrote in a Sept. 13 X post:

“After the Belief stage at $72K, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) shows a green bar, which corresponds to the Anxiety stage. Investor anxiety, if you're not an LTH, is a permanent process, the best remedy for this is HODL.”

BTC: adjusted net unrealized profit/loss NUPL. Source: Axel Adler

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s current downside remains in line with previous historical cycles for September, according to popular analyst Rekt Capital, who wrote in a Sept. 12 X post:

“Bitcoin is currently only -1.59% down on the month.”

Bitcoin average monthly returns, percentage. Source: Rekt Capital

September has historically been a month of poor performance for Bitcoin price, with average returns at -4.69%, making it the most bearish month based on average returns, according to CoinGlass data.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.