The odds of Donald Trump winning the November election and nominating Elon Musk to his cabinet have surged on Polymarket.
A Polymarket poll with over $803 million in assets, shows Donald Trump with a 53% chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 46%. Harris had been leading Trump for a time in August as enthusiasm for her campaign increased.
Another Polymarket poll, with $77,000 in assets, predicted Trump would win and nominate Elon Musk to his cabinet. These odds rose to 18% on Sep. 5, up from 12% a day earlier. The poll will be deemed accurate if Trump wins and appoints Musk to lead one of the 15 executive departments or a cabinet-level role.
Odds of Trump nominating Elon Musk to cabinet jump | Source: Polymarket
According to the poll’s creators, advisory roles will not count as cabinet-level appointments.
These odds jumped after the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was considering Musk to lead a government efficiency commission. This commission would review the federal government to identify waste, reduce fraud, and prevent improper payments.
Elon Musk has become a vocal supporter of Trump and has donated to his campaign. While the two billionaires differ on some policies, they have aligned on key issues like regulation and immigration.
Musk has been open to serving in some capacity in government. What is unclear, however, is whether he will agree to step aside from his many ventures like SpaceX, Tesla, and X that are regulated by the federal government.
I look forward to serving America if the opportunity arises. No pay, no title, no recognition is needed. https://t.co/5PSNtjBQn7
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 5, 2024
Trump and Musk-themed tokens mixed
Donald Trump and Elon Musk-themed tokens were mixed after the WSJ report. Elon (ELON), a token valued at over $2.7 million, rose by 9.4% while MAGA Hat (MAGA) rose by 2.3%. MAGA (TRUMP), the biggest Trump-themed token, has dropped by over 17.5% in the last seven days.
In the stock market, Tesla shares jumped by over 4.8%, continuing its recent recovery that has pushed its market cap to over $733 billion. Trump Media & Technology stock was little changed and has retreated by over 36% in the last month.
Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies were also muted after the report. BTC was stuck below $57,000 while Ethereum (ETH) dropped below $2,400. Trump is seen as a more favorable candidate for the industry.
However, historically, cryptocurrencies have done regardless of who was in the White House. Bitcoin jumped to a record high of $1,166 under Barrack Obama, $35,000 under Trump, and $73,800 under Biden.
Kamala Harris leads in most polls
It is still unclear whether Donald Trump will win the election, especially because of independent voters.
Recent mainstream polls have sent mixed signals. Harris leads Trump by six points in an Outward Intelligence poll. She also leads him by four points in an Emerson College poll and by two points an a YouGov one.
Harris is also leading in fundraising, raising $300 million in August, compared to Trump’s $130 million. This funding suggests she still has momentum with two months left before the election.