Kamala Harris has an edge over Donald Trump in the presidential race{n
The data shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a slight edge over former President Donald Trump.
Market watchers believe that this change reflects broader market trends and Harris' improved chances of winning.
The crypto community remains skeptical that Harris will maintain her relationship with the industry. The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is becoming increasingly competitive, with the vice president slightly ahead of the former president. According to the latest data from Polymarkets, Harris has a 52% chance of winning, giving her a 6% lead over Trump, who has a 46% chance of winning. This is a significant shift from Trump's previous dominance, and one wonders if this change is in line with broader market trends.
Nick Tomaino, general partner at 1confirmation, emphasizes that market forecasting often reflects the consensus of investment stakeholders. He acknowledges that dark money groups may overstate Harris' chances to sway public opinion. But Mr. Tomaino argues that media influence is probably more influential than attempts at manipulation in decentralized prediction markets.
It's true that dark money groups like Arabella Advisors spend billions of dollars to get candidates elected (ten times more than right-wing groups).
But that's not what's happening in the polymarket right now. If Arabella wanted to float the entire $1.2 billion it spent in 2020 to give the impression that it was 95% Camara, market makers would quickly absorb that liquidity and reflect the true market price. According to Tomaino:
"It's a liquid market full of sophisticated players looking to make money
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