In a turn of events, the assassination attempt on former United States President Donald Trump during a campaign rally has been labeled a “true black swan event” by analysts.
Surprisingly, this incident has led to gains in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), which surged above $60,000. This phenomenon is unprecedented, as black swan events typically result in market downturns.
Notably, before the rally, Bitcoin was consolidating below the $60,000 mark, facing the threat of a free fall under $55,000.
In this line, crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards, in an X post on July 14, highlighted this anomaly in the analysis of Bitcoin.
According to the expert, Bitcoin has weathered several black swan events over the past decade, each resulting in significant price drops. In 2012, the collapse of Mt. Gox saw Bitcoin plummet by 96%. The 2014 Bitfinex hack resulted in an 87% drop. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to an 84% decline, and the 2022 FTX collapse saw Bitcoin fall by 78%.
Bitcoin black swan events chart. Source: TradingView
However, the recent assassination attempt on Trump has diverged from this pattern, leading to a bullish response in the market. The analysis suggested that this black swan event could be the first to lead to gains in the crypto market, setting a new precedent.
“We have indeed witnessed a true black swan event with the Trump assassination attemp. This will be the first black swan to lead to gains in the crypto market. Trump’s presidency is not yet priced in,” the analyst said.
Bitcoin’s next move
The attempt on Trump’s life occurred at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania. Despite the chaos, Trump responded defiantly, which, according to analysts, bolstered speculation about his chances of re-election.
Notably, Trump has been a vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies, stating that he intends to make the US a leader in crypto.
His pro-crypto stance is believed to have contributed to the market’s optimistic reaction following the assassination attempt. Trump is scheduled to participate in several crypto events, with the upcoming Bitcoin Conference at the top of the agenda. Despite the shooting attempt, Trump has confirmed he will still speak at the Bitcoin Conference.
With Bitcoin crossing the $60,000 mark, investors and analysts are watching the market’s next moves. The recent rally suggests that Bitcoin might be in for sustained growth, fueled by political uncertainty and Trump’s pro-crypto policies.
To gather insights on how Bitcoin might trade in the coming months after the shooting incident, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s latest artificial intelligence tool (AI), ChatGPT-4o.
The AI tool predicted that at the end of 2024, Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high and trade in the range of $80,000 to $120,000, assuming no other major adverse events and continued interest in cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $59,980, having rallied over 2.5% in the last 24 hours. The gains are also reflected on the weekly chart, where the asset has gained over 5%.
Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold
In the meantime, attention is on Bitcoin maintaining regaining the $60,000 support, with some analysts suggesting that claiming the $60,600 support is crucial to maintaining the gains.
