According to CryptoPotato, Bitcoin's price has been stagnant since its peak in March, a situation attributed to the U.S.'s stringent monetary policy that has led to a decrease in stablecoin supply, as per CryptoQuant analysts. They stated on July 3 that Bitcoin's inability to rally further is fundamentally due to the U.S.'s tightening monetary policy since March 2022. Consequently, the overall stablecoin supply began to drop in early 2022 when the Federal Reserve initiated an increase in interest rates.
The analysts noted that for Bitcoin to rally significantly, there needs to be an increase in stablecoin liquidity and circulating supply. They concluded that an increase in stablecoin liquidity and circulating supply through a more accommodative monetary policy in the U.S. is necessary for Bitcoin to enter a bull market. Until then, Bitcoin may continue to trade sideways or correct, suggesting investors should adopt a long-term perspective. Lower interest rates mean that cash is less attractive as an investment and high-risk assets such as crypto or tech stocks become more attractive. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, provided economic data remains positive.
The stablecoin supply began to rise again in late 2023, but rates have remained high at over 5% for over a year. Bitcoin has been fluctuating between the high $50K level and the low $70K level for the past four months. The stablecoin market capitalization has steadily increased over the past few months, currently standing at $161 billion, representing around 7% of the total crypto market. This is less than half of what it was at its peak in 2022. Tether remains the market leader with a market share of almost 70%, and the USDT supply is currently at an all-time high of $112 billion. Its closest competitor, Circle, has a market share of around 20% with a circulating supply of $32.5 billion. Maker's DAI is the third largest stablecoin with a $5 billion market cap and a share of just over 3%.