Rua Con

In this market, where the bull and the bear are fighting equally, I find it very hard to trade. After BTC had a strong bull run and then went sideways to form a solid support, random coins began pumping unexpectedly and then dumping hard. I had a "genius" idea: short the pumped coins. But this is very hard to execute.

When UXLINK hit $3, I thought it would go down before reaching $3.5. I was lucky that I didn’t short it because the coin hit $3.8 before crashing hard. If I had shorted it, my position would have been liquidated before I could see any profit. Unfortunately, I wasn’t as lucky with GMT. I did make some profit with ZEN, but I think I exited way too soon.

Maybe I should stay on the sidelines until the market shows a clearer direction, either bullish or bearish. Right now, I feel like what I’m doing is gambling, not trading.

I tried something new today: betting against the trend. I shorted GMT after just two red 1H candles, even though it was still showing a strong uptrend. Just one hour later, my stop loss was hit. Ouch...

SOL is looking grim right now, but I don't think it will fall back to 175, at least not this week.

It has been only 3 days and I can see long positions getting liquidated everywhere.

ETH is going strong. Just a bit more, and it will break the all-year high. If you want to get in, be cautious and prepared for a shakeout.
For example, you can bet $100 that after it hits $4,094, it will not go back to $3,500:

100 / (4,094 - 3,500) = 0.168

Your maximum long position is 0.168 ETH. If ETH drops to $3,500, you lose $100.

Thinking in bets helps protect your capital when you are wrong, while bringing you beautiful profits when you are right.

This is a little check on your mental health.

With BTC crossing $100K in this exciting bull run, we all know it’s doing very well.

But how about you? Are you doing well too?
Do you have a trade strategy, a system, or a plan to help you sleep like a baby at night?
Are you able to think clearly when BTC hits $104K and then quickly drops to $90.5K?
Do you feel anxious watching it break its all-time high while holding too little of it?
Or do you feel uneasy holding onto it while watching it make a few red candles?
And when it moves sideways, do you spend hours finding an altcoin that might soar tomorrow? Maybe it’s ETH, LTC, or the mysterious STRK this time?
Do you wake up at 2 AM and immediately grab your phone to check the price?

No material wealth is more valuable than your mental health. Take care.

A warning for newcomers considering putting all their life savings into BTC or other crypto:

Please don't do it.

Every bull run, I've seen too many people jump into crypto, investing all their life savings into a single coin at its peak, only to face devastating losses when the coin’s value drops significantly. It's not just their savings that are wiped out—it's often their relationships, health, sanity, and, in extreme cases, even their lives.

Let’s consider an example. Meet Mary, a 25-year-old young woman. Mary graduated from a top university and had been working diligently for three years. Earning $2,000 a month, she managed to save $400 after all expenses, building up $8,000 in her savings account.

This year, Mary had plans to travel, just as she did every year. However, she started hearing a lot about BTC and crypto—it was the hottest thing. People were reportedly making 2x, 4x, even 8x returns in a matter of days or weeks. When BTC hit $67,000, Mary thought, “BTC seems overvalued; it uses a lot of energy and doesn’t do much beyond transferring money. Maybe ETH is a better option.”

So, Mary took her entire $8,000 and bought ETH, convinced it was the superior choice and that others would soon realize it too. She purchased ETH near its all-time high of $4,100. But shortly afterward, it crashed to $2,800 and began a slow recovery. Her average purchase price was $3,500.

Mary waited. And waited. And waited. Finally, unable to bear the stress any longer, she sold her ETH at $2,200. Her $8,000 savings had shrunk to just over $5,000. She had lost nearly a year’s worth of savings and vowed to never trade again.

So, you see BTC hit $100,000, and you’re considering buying some?

Here’s what I’d do:

- Risk a fixed amount, say $100.
- Look at the 1D chart: the 2-week low is $90,700. Let’s use $90,000 as the stop-loss for easier calculations:

$100 / ($100,000 - $90,000) = 0.01.

- So, I’d buy 0.01 BTC.

My reasoning for this trade:

- If BTC drops to $90,000, I lose $100.
- If BTC rises to $110,000, I make $100.
- At $120,000, I make $200, and so on.

Happy case:
BTC keeps going up, reaching $1,000,000 and to the moon. It never hits $90,000.
When would I close this trade? The 2-week low would also move up over time.
Let’s say BTC starts declining and hits a new 2-week low, at $700,000. That’s when I’d sell.

This simple method is called trend following, first developed by Richard Donchian.

Will I get rich with this method?
Probably, but not overnight. However, I’m confident I won’t get rekt either.

Some historical price movements:

- When BTC first went over $1,000 in December 2013, it dropped to under $300 in 2015 before reaching $1,000 again in 2017.

- It kept going up to $20,000 in December 2017 but dropped to under $3,500 in 2018.

- The $1,000 level has never been seen again since 2017.

- The same cycle continued, with BTC reaching $67,000 in 2021 and dropping to $16,000 in 2022.

I guess a brutal correction is coming in about a week, probably two weeks. The market has been in extreme greed mode for about three weeks now. The last time it was this greedy was in March of this year, with BTC at $60K to $73K. What goes up must come down. Stay safe with proper stop-losses and reasonable position sizing.

What’s your price target for XRP? With its price rally over the last few weeks, I’ve seen many people hoping it will reach $1,000.

But let’s be realistic. If XRP reached $8, its market cap would surpass ETH’s current market cap. If it hit $35, it would be larger than BTC’s. At $310, it would exceed gold’s market cap, which is insane.

BNB is brutal. I thought it might hold its ground for at least a week. I guess this correction shook off a lot of people. However, I think this is also a very good time to buy for those who believe in BNB, with a proper stop-loss to prevent another shakeout from the correction.

In a bull market, even the mediocre ones perform well. I had to scroll pretty far on CoinMarketCap to find one in red.

I have to disagree with you. The people who don't want to learn will behave the same in stock market, forex, commodities, and even real estate market.

I almost made a huge mistake yesterday. We had quite a correction yesterday on BTC and many other coins. I've been DCA-ing ETH alongside BTC ever since ETH was above $4,000. Seeing its price lag behind BTC really put a strain on my mind. Yesterday, I unstaked my ETH, intending to cash it all out and use that fund to put more into BTC. My emotions got the better of me; this isn't how DCA is supposed to work at all. Luckily for me, it'll take a few days for my ETH to be unstaked. By that time, hopefully, I'll be in a clearer state of mind. Keep calm and keep DCA-ing until I need to cash out and use that money for something else.

My friends often ask why I set my stop loss so low. BTC at $87K, ETH at $3K, DOGE at $0.32, and so on. The best answer? This market correction says it all.

Why Going All-In Is a Bad Idea.

Back in 2018, I went all-in on NEBL at $10. It had fallen from its $60 peak, and I thought, "It'll bounce back." But it didn’t. NEBL kept crashing, and today it’s worth pennies. I ended up selling at $4, taking a painful 60% loss. That was the last time I ever went all-in.

Here’s the math: if you go all-in with $1,000 at $10 and the price drops to $1, you’re left with $100, a 90% loss. For it to recover to $10, you’d need a 10x gain, which is highly unlikely.

If I had split that money into top coins at that time like BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, XLM, BCH, XMR, or ADA instead, things would have been very different. The lesson? Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify, protect your capital, and never bet everything on one coin. It’s just not worth the risk. Oh, and don't catch a falling knife like I did.

Mastering High Leverage: The RIGHT Way to Use It

High leverage can be risky, but when used wisely with predefined stop-loss, position sizing, and risk management, it becomes a powerful tool. Let’s break it down. 🚀

1️⃣ Start with Maximum Risk Tolerance

Before trading, decide the maximum percentage of your capital you're willing to risk. For example:

Risk per trade = 1% of capital. If your account is $1,000, you can risk $10 per trade.

2️⃣ Position Sizing Example (BTC at $90,000)

With 50x leverage, every 1% BTC price move changes your position by 50%! Proper position sizing is critical:

Use your stop-loss to calculate your position size.

Example:

Stop-loss = 2% price drop.

Position size = $10 (risk) ÷ 2% = $500. (or 0.0055 BTC)

At 50x leverage, controlling $500 only requires $10 margin, aligning with your risk tolerance.

3️⃣ Predefine Your Stop-Loss

Set a stop-loss BEFORE entering the trade to control losses.

Example:

BTC price = $90,000.

Entry = $90,000, Stop-loss = $88,200 (-2%).

If BTC drops to $88,200, your position closes automatically, limiting your loss.

4️⃣ Avoid Overtrading

High leverage is tempting, but it’s NOT for every trade. Use it selectively when:

Market conditions are favorable (clear trends or breakouts).

Your strategy has a high probability of success.

5️⃣ Key Rules for High Leverage Success

Risk Management: Never risk more than 1-2% of your account per trade.

Stop-Loss Discipline: Always set a stop-loss to limit damage.

Position Sizing: Calculate size based on risk and stop-loss.

Emotional Control: Stick to the plan, no revenge trading!

High leverage isn’t the enemy - lack of preparation is. Trade responsibly and let the power of leverage work FOR you, not against you.

Have questions? Let’s talk risk management below! 🛡️

Understanding Leverage: 5x, 10x, 50x on BTC ($90,000)

Leverage amplifies your potential profits AND risks. Let’s break down 5x, 10x, and 50x leverage with BTC trading at $90,000.

1️⃣ What is Leverage?

Leverage lets you control a larger position with a smaller amount of capital. For example:

5x leverage means you control 5x your initial amount.

10x leverage = 10x your initial amount.

50x leverage = 50x your initial amount.

2️⃣ Example:

You have $1,000.

5x Leverage: You control $5,000 worth of BTC.

10x Leverage: You control $10,000 worth of BTC.

50x Leverage: You control $50,000 worth of BTC.

If BTC rises 10% to $99,000:

5x: Profit = $500 (+50%)

10x: Profit = $1,000 (+100%)

50x: Profit = $5,000 (+500%)

Looks exciting? Now, let’s look at the risks.

3️⃣ The DANGER of High Leverage

If BTC drops just 2% to $88,200:

5x: Loss = $100 (-10%)

10x: Loss = $200 (-20%)

50x: Loss = $1,000 (Liquidated) = Account Wiped Out!

With 50x, even a tiny price movement could liquidate your position.

4️⃣ Key Takeaways

Lower leverage (e.g., 5x) = Safer, more manageable risks.

High leverage (e.g., 50x) = Extremely risky, quick liquidations.

Always educate yourself, use proper risk management, and trade responsibly.

Crypto market facing more corrections—tough to tell if we're in a bull or bear phase short term. Uncertainty rules for now. Trade with caution and apply strict risk management.