$BTC $BTC

I believe that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot continue to grow exponentially; this would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025. While I am a long-term Bitcoin bull, one has to remain realistic.

The cause of these growth cycles is the halvings, which lead to a supply shock followed by a subsequent rally—every time. These are all guesstimates, of course, but I think this chart is realistic.

The long-term goal for BTC in 2025 is around 150K to 180K USD, in my opinion. It won't go much higher afterward and can be seen as the final asymptotic price.

Important Things to Note

- During the 2016 bull run, after breaking its previous ATH, BTC had a 303-day bull run and reached a new ATH of $19,666.
- During the 2020 bull run, after breaking its previous ATH, BTC had a 337-day bull run and reached a new ATH of $69,000.
- In the 2024 bull run, BTC broke its previous ATH in just 500 days, which was not expected. The current situation is that BTC broke out of its previous ATH and is currently retesting it. Based on historical data, we can expect a bull run lasting between 303 and 337 days.

I hope this chart helps people understand the long-term growth dynamics of BTC. This idea is presented in a probabilistic manner.