According to BlockBeats, on June 25, UBS economists reiterated their outlook for a soft landing of the US economy. They predict that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September and believe that the market may have misjudged the extent of the Fed's future rate cuts.
UBS pointed out that although there have been abnormal fluctuations in economic data since the outbreak of the pandemic, certain trends now seem to have been established. The US labor market, which was severely overheated two years ago, has returned to a state close to pre-pandemic levels, driven by strong growth in labor supply.
In addition, there are signs of a slowdown in retail sales and inflation. In May, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, only rose by 0.16%, marking the smallest increase since August 2021. Although the core inflation rate is showing a downward trend, it is still much higher than pre-pandemic levels.