Solana has recently faced significant challenges as Tron has successfully drawn users and liquidity away, resulting in a notable drop in Solana’s price, user activity, and network fees. This shift has also led to a decline in Solana’s daily revenue, raising questions about the blockchain’s ability to recover and possibly reclaim the $200 price level.
Solana Price Declines Amid Tron's Strategic Maneuvers
Over the past few weeks, Solana’s price has been under pressure, largely due to the shifting volume toward Tron following the launch of the SunPump platform. This move, which some Solana supporters have dubbed a ‘vampire attack,’ was strategically orchestrated by Tron’s founder, Justin Sun. Sun announced his plan to increase the network's usage by leveraging the meme coin industry, resulting in significant trading volume migrating from Solana to Tron.
A ‘vampire attack’ in the crypto world refers to a strategy where one blockchain or decentralized protocol attempts to lure users and liquidity from another chain. On August 13, Justin Sun’s launch of SunPump—a Tron-based version of the popular Pump.fun on Solana—sparked a massive influx of users and volume to Tron, propelling the SUN token to new heights.
As a result, Tron’s TRX token saw a significant price surge, surpassing competitors like Cardano (ADA) and Ton (TON), while Solana’s price began to falter. The impact on Solana was not limited to its price; the network also experienced a drop in users, trading volume, and fees. Data from Dune Analytics shows that Solana’s total fees and Jito tips have declined by more than 50% since Sun’s launch of SunPump on Tron. Notably, much of Solana's revenue was driven by priority fees or MEV (Maximal Extractable Value) tips. With the migration of Solana’s most active users to Tron, the network’s revenue from these fees has significantly decreased.
For context, Solana was generating an average of $1 million per day in revenue from fees. However, following the launch of SunPump, Solana’s daily revenue has struggled to exceed $500,000.
Solana Price Analysis: Can It Recover?
As September began, Solana’s price was under considerable pressure, trading around $134 after losing nearly 25% in value throughout August. Despite this decline, technical analysis suggests that Solana’s price remains within a 187-day consolidation zone, indicating potential stability. During this period, Solana has tested the lower boundary of this zone five times, reinforcing its support level.
However, the major resistance around $200 appears relatively weak, having only been tested once. Stronger resistance is found just below this level, around $180, with another weaker resistance at $160.
If Solana’s price can break above the immediate resistance at $160, it has the potential to surge to $180 and possibly reach $200, representing over a 50% gain from its current price. On the downside, if bears manage to break through the strong support at $120, Solana’s price could fall further to around $80.
In summary, while Solana faces challenges due to Tron's strategic moves, its ability to reclaim the $200 level will depend on its capacity to overcome key resistance levels and regain market confidence.
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