While the ultimate price of Bitcoin ($BTC ) remains uncertain, we can use simple mathematics to estimate an upper boundary. Consider the total value of all wealth assets, approximately $500 trillion. If Bitcoin were to capture all this wealth (a highly improbable scenario), it would value each coin at $24 million (based on today's value, excluding future inflation adjustments).

Realistic Allocation for Wealth Management

Wealth management strategies are typically conservative and follow established financial wisdom. Currently, Fidelity recommends a 1-3% allocation to Bitcoin, whereas BlackRock has suggested figures as high as 85%.

Sensible Allocation and Valuation

If we use a 3% allocation as a conservative and sensible estimate, the lower bound valuation for Bitcoin is approximately $700,000 per coin. This is based on:

- Lower Bound: $700,000

- Maximum Bound: $24 million

These estimates are in today's inflation-adjusted numbers.

Adoption S-Curve and Timing

Determining "when" Bitcoin will reach these valuations involves understanding the adoption S-curve. The early majority adoption is around 16%, and the late majority adoption is around 50%. Wealth management adoption is likely within this sector.

Economic Incentives and Future Investments

Once Bitcoin’s market cap exceeds all fiat currencies globally, the focus shifts from fiat-based valuation to finding investments that can outperform Bitcoin. Companies that store their profits in Bitcoin will be of particular interest.

Key Points

- Sensible Allocation: Fidelity suggests 1-3%, BlackRock up to 85%

- Price Targets:

- Lower Bound: $700,000

- Upper Bound: $24 million

- Adoption Curve: Key to timing valuation milestones

- Future Focus: Investments outperforming Bitcoin, such as companies with BTC holdings

Economic Incentives and Global Impact

Bitcoin is protected and driven by economic incentives, not by national or geopolitical factors. The idea of valuing Bitcoin purely in fiat terms is fundamentally flawed. War and conflict are outcomes of economic incentives between nations; Bitcoin, lacking nationality, does not fit into this traditional framework.

By understanding these dynamics, investors can better anticipate Bitcoin’s potential and make informed decisions about its role in their portfolios.