Donald Trump was shot in the ear during a Pennsylvania rally on July 13, suddenly boosting the candidate’s popularity. The prediction market now prices a 70% chance of Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, up 10% day-over-day.
As observed, the former president’s popularity has increased over time but had an impressive boost with the recent event. Related keywords are trending everywhere, evidencing the significance of what happened on Saturday for the country and the presidential election.
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More Donald Trump and presidential election’s related predictions
Moreover, Polymarket traders are also betting on related predictions to Donald Trump’s assassination attempt and the election. For example, the market puts a 79% chance of the shooter being a “rogue actor” while saying there is a 100% chance that the gun used in the event was real.
From another perspective, 45% of the market believes Joe Biden will drop out of the presidential race, dividing opinions.
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How Polymarket’s prediction market works
Prediction markets have been provably accurate sources of future events, often more precise than legacy polls and surveys.
Notably, the cryptocurrency market and the use of cryptocurrencies to place bets and receive rewards have opened the doors for traders worldwide to profit from accurate predictions and asymmetries, increasing the value and accuracy of these markets as the volume and accessibility grew.
Essentially, if someone believes Donald Trump has a better chance than 70% of winning the 2024 presidential election, he can profit from purchasing a share of this prediction, worth $0.70. If Trump wins, everyone with a “win” bet will receive $1 per share, profiting $0.30 per share.
As things develop, the odds of a win are expected to change, and the prediction market is now closely watching.
Not a financial advice!
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