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Recent market movements have seen a reversal in sentiment from bullish to cautious, with expectations now shifting towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite a stronger-than-anticipated June non-farm payrolls report, earlier downward revisions and a rise in unemployment have fueled speculations of Fed intervention. Derivatives traders are notably confident, with a 100% probability priced in for two rate cuts this year, and a 76% chance of a cut as early as September.

Investment strategists like Jeff Klingelhofer of Thornburg Investment Management emphasize ongoing uncertainties and the Fed's likely move towards easing. According to Klingelhofer, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent signals suggest a favorable outlook towards gradual monetary easing. This stance comes amidst a recovering yet delicately balanced labor market and persistent downside risks to inflation, potentially steering the economy towards recession.

Jeffrey Rosenberg from BlackRock echoes the sentiment, highlighting the upcoming inflation and economic data as critical in solidifying expectations for a September rate cut. Rosenberg underscores the need for further confirmation through data, stressing its pivotal role in shaping market sentiment and policy decisions moving forward.

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