📌 Nick Timiraos ( #FED insider ):
- The June Nonfarm will make the Fed meeting in July more interesting.
- At the next meeting (in September) there may be a real debate about the need to reduce the interest rate.
▪️ Minutes from the last Fed meeting:
- The Fed is not ready to cut the rate until it gains confidence in the trajectory of inflation towards the target 2%.
- Most Fed chairmen consider the current monetary policy to be restrictive.
- Economic growth is slowing down.
- The Fed rate may be reduced by the end of the year.
▪️ Williams, Fed Chairman:
- We still have a long way to go to achieve inflation = 2.0% on a sustainable basis.
- Monetary policy uncertainty remains the main factor in the near future.
📍Market expectations (Fed rate):
- July 31: Pause.
- September 18: decrease by 25 bp. up to 5.00-5.25%.
- November 7: Pause.
- December 18: decrease by 25 bp. up to 4.75-5.00%.
- January 29, 2025: decrease by 25 bps. up to 4.50-4.75%.