ftx

Former FTX executive Ryan Salame, currently serving a 7.5-year prison sentence, has publicly criticized the Biden administration, accusing the Department of Justice (DOJ) of politically motivated and selective prosecution. According to Salame, the DOJ under President Biden targeted individuals rather than crimes and deliberately ignored similar actions by Democratic allies.
In a post on X, Salame claimed he was “chosen as a scapegoat” due to his donations to Republican campaigns. He also alleged that prosecutors ignored evidence in his favor and silenced witnesses who could confirm his innocence.
Concerns over how the DOJ handled the FTX case were echoed by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the founder of the collapsed crypto exchange, who reposted Salame’s message. SBF argued that the Biden-era DOJ went after people who had no knowledge of the core fraud at FTX, while disregarding evidence proving their lack of involvement.
Salame further claimed that he was pressured into pleading guilty to making unlawful political donations and operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business. He accused a former assistant U.S. attorney of threatening to investigate his pregnant partner:

"They went after my wife—literally and figuratively. I eventually surrendered to make sure my loved ones wouldn’t be harmed. I refused to lie, and that’s what they wanted me to do,” he said.

Hopes for a Trump Pardon
Salame expressed support for an executive order by former President Donald Trump that addresses the alleged “weaponization” of federal agencies under Biden. He is hopeful that Trump’s return could bring reform—and perhaps a presidential pardon. He referenced similar hopes held by figures like Changpeng Zhao and Arthur Hayes, who also clashed with U.S. regulators.
Although Trump has not granted clemency to anyone directly involved in international crypto cases, Salame—having been a Republican donor and pleaded guilty—might stand a chance.

SBF Says He Never Had a Fair Trial
Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried’s legal team argues that their client was presumed guilty from the outset. They claim the prosecutors, media, and especially the presiding judge acted with bias, and that SBF never received a fair trial.

FTX Token Slightly Up
While the legal saga unfolds, the FTX token (FTT) has gained over 3%, currently trading at $0.479. Its 24-hour low and high are $0.464 and $0.484, respectively.

#FTX , #SBF , #TRUMP , #CZ , #biden

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Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, owning 671,268 #BTC , which represents over 3.2% of all Bitcoin in circulation. That makes the company a high-risk keystone in the Bitcoin ecosystem. 

If it falls apart, the impact could be larger than the 2022 FTX collapse. Here’s why that threat is real, what could trigger it, and how bad the fallout could be.

MicroStrategy Is a Leveraged Bitcoin Bet

MicroStrategy’s entire identity is now tied to Bitcoin. The company spent over $50 billion buying $BTC , mostly using debt and stock sales. Its software business brings in just $460 million a year, which is a fraction of its exposure.

As of December 2025, its stock trades well below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The market value is approximately $45 billion, but its BTC is worth around $59–60 billion. 

Investors are discounting its assets because of concerns about dilution, debt, and sustainability. 

Its average BTC cost basis is around $74,972, and most of its recent buys were near Bitcoin’s peak in Q4 2025.

More than 95% of its valuation hinges on the price of Bitcoin. 

If BTC drops sharply, the company could be trapped — holding billions in debt and preferred equity with no way out. 

For instance, Bitcoin dropped 20% since October 10, but MSTR’s loss has been more than double in the same period. 

What Makes This a Black Swan Risk?

MicroStrategy used aggressive tactics to fund Bitcoin buys. It sold common stock and issued new types of preferred shares.

 It now owes over $8.2 billion in convertible debt and has more than $7.5 billion in preferred stock. These financial tools require large cash outflows: $779 million annually in interest and dividends.

At the current levels, if Bitcoin crashes below $13,000, MicroStrategy could become insolvent. That’s not likely in the near term, but BTC’s history shows that 70–80% drawdowns are common. 

A large crash, especially if paired with a liquidity crunch or ETF-driven volatility, could push the company into distress.

Unlike FTX, MicroStrategy is not an exchange. But the effect of its failure could be deeper. It owns more Bitcoin than any entity except a few ETFs and governments.
 
Forced liquidation or panic over MicroStrategy’s collapse could drive BTC’s price down sharply — creating a feedback loop across crypto markets.

MicroStrategy has promised not to sell its BTC, but that depends on its ability to raise cash. 

As of late 2025, it holds $2.2 billion in reserves. This is enough to cover two years of payouts. But that buffer could vanish if BTC falls and capital markets close.

How Likely Is a Collapse for Michael Saylor’s Strategy?

Probability isn’t binary. But the risk is rising.

MicroStrategy’s current position is fragile. Its stock has fallen 50% this year. Its mNAV is below 0.8×. Institutional investors are shifting to Bitcoin ETFs, which are cheaper and less complex. 

Index funds may drop MSTR due to its structure, triggering billions in passive outflows.

If #bitcoin falls below $50,000 and stays there, the company’s market cap could fall below its debt load. At that point, its ability to raise capital could dry up — forcing painful decisions, including asset sales or restructuring.

The odds of a total collapse in 2026 are low, but not remote. A rough estimate might place the probability between 10–20%, based on current balance sheet risk, market behavior, and Bitcoin volatility.

But if it does happen, the damage could exceed FTX’s collapse. #FTX was a centralized exchange. MicroStrategy is a key holder of Bitcoin’s supply. 

If its holdings flood the market, Bitcoin’s price and confidence could be hit hard. This would potentially trigger a broader selloff across crypto.

#MicroStrategy