According to Cointelegraph: While Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election has added momentum to Bitcoin’s recent price rally, Onramp Bitcoin co-founder Jesse Myers argues that the primary catalyst lies in Bitcoin’s post-halving supply shock. Myers explained in a November 11 X post that the real driver is the significant reduction in Bitcoin’s supply due to the April 2024 halving, which slashed block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Post-Halving Supply Shock Fuels Demand
Myers pointed out that Bitcoin’s supply has tightened significantly, creating a supply-demand imbalance that’s driving prices higher. This latest halving, combined with strong demand from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, has contributed to an accelerating price trend. On November 11, Bitcoin ETFs alone saw an influx of roughly 13,940 BTC, compared to just 450 BTC mined in the same period, highlighting the rising demand pressure.
Predictable Post-Halving Cycles and Demand from Institutional Investors
Myers highlighted the historical trend of post-halving bubbles, which have led to price spikes in prior cycles after 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings. He suggested this pattern could repeat as Bitcoin’s fixed supply mechanism—halving new issuance every four years—adds to the price pressure. Onchain analyst James Check echoed this sentiment, comparing Bitcoin’s scarce $1.6 trillion market cap with gold’s, noting that Bitcoin has a unique, absolute scarcity, with 94% of all BTC now in circulation or lost, leaving just 1.2 million BTC to be mined.
Institutional and National-Level Demand Expected to Rise
American financier Anthony Scaramucci added that while some may feel they “missed” the rally, it’s still “early.” He expressed confidence that the U.S. would establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, potentially prompting other nations and institutional investors to follow suit, further tightening the limited supply.
As Bitcoin approaches new highs, driven by both the halving effect and robust institutional interest, analysts anticipate continued gains, with some predicting a predictable four-year market cycle fueled by Bitcoin’s unique economic model.
