Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool used in trading to measure market volatility and identify potential overbought or oversold conditions. Developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, they consist of three lines plotted on a price chart:
1. **Middle Band**: This is a simple moving average (SMA) of the price, usually set to 20 periods.
2. **Upper Band**: This is the middle band plus two standard deviations of the price.
3. **Lower Band**: This is the middle band minus two standard deviations of the price.
### Key Concepts
- **Volatility**: Bollinger Bands expand when volatility increases and contract when volatility decreases.
- **Overbought/Oversold**: Prices near the upper band may be considered overbought, while prices near the lower band may be considered oversold.
- **Trend Indicators**: A move and close above the upper band can indicate a strong uptrend, while a move and close below the lower band can indicate a strong downtrend.
### Usage in Trading
- **Trend Reversal**: Traders look for price touches or moves beyond the bands to signal potential reversals. For instance, if a price consistently touches the upper band, it might indicate an overbought condition, suggesting a possible sell opportunity.
- **Trend Continuation**: When prices hug the upper or lower band for an extended period, it can indicate a strong trend is in place.
- **Squeeze**: A period of low volatility, where the bands are very close together, can precede a significant price move. Traders watch for a breakout from this squeeze as a potential trading signal.
### Example Calculation
If the 20-period SMA of a stock is $100, with a standard deviation of $5:
- Middle Band = $100
- Upper Band = $100 + (2 * $5) = $110
- Lower Band = $100 - (2 * $5) = $90
Bollinger Bands provide a visual representation of volatility and are a versatile tool for traders to make informed decisions. However, like all indicators, they should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools and not as a standalone predictor.
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