#BTC   

The Bitcoin "Danger Zone"

The Bitcoin Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange) is where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun

Historically, Bitcoin has performed Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before the Halving

This cycle was no different and here's why:

Because Bitcoin experienced its first -18% Pre-Halving Retrace approximately 30 days before the Halving

History repeated in that respect

In fact, in 2016 Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace 28 days before the Halving and in 2024 it was 30 days before the Halving

This 2024 closely mirrored the 2016 in this respect

Which is why a Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) also repeated for Bitcoin in this cycle as well

The Bitcoin Post-Halving "Danger Zone"

In 2016, Bitcoin produced a long -11% downside wick approximately 21 days after the Halving before reversing towards the upside

Bitcoin is currently 21 days after the Halving

And 2016 history showed that downside volatility around the Re-Accumulation Range Low (green horizontal level) tends to occur

And indeed it also occurred in this cycle, with a -6.5% downside wick occurring 14 days after the Halving

The "Danger Zone" has been satisfied as a result

Overall, the purple Post-Halving "Danger Zone" is on the cusp of ending and Bitcoin just needs to hold above $60600 until the end of the week to be in the clear

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin