With the Bitcoin #Halving! on the horizon, many are eager to understand its potential impact on the price of $BTC and the broader cryptocurrency market in the aftermath.
Based on historical evidence, we can observe the following:
📍BTC broke the ATH in 2017 ($20,000) in December 2020.
📍From $20,000 (December 2020) to reaching $64,000 in April 2021 (temporary pump wave 1), it took ~4 months.
📍From $20,000 (December 2020) to reaching $69,000 in November 2021 (wave 2), it took ~11 months.
Following that:
BTC broke the #ATH. in 2021 ($69,000) in March 2024.
=> If we follow the time frame for projection:
📍July 2024 (approximately 4 months after breaking the $69k ATH in March 2024) BTC will create the peak of wave 1 of the cycle (followed by a dump) -> potentially around Q3/2024. The theory based on the time interval suggests a real pump wave may only occur in Q4/2024 (around July 2024 might have a pump wave, but it might not be very strong, possibly just a pump wave to induce FOMO...)
📍February 2025 (approximately 11 months after breaking the $69k ATH in March 2024) BTC will create the peak of wave 2 of the cycle (followed by another dump) -> around Q1/2025
📍The timeframes of November or February are estimations and cannot be guaranteed with absolute accuracy, but we can approximate that they will fall around:
=> Q4/2024 & Q1/2025 could be periods of significant price volatility for #BTC in an upward direction.
=> If this uptrend has two or more pump waves, the peak of wave 1 may be much lower compared to the peak of the subsequent wave. In the 2021 cycle, the peak of wave 1 ($64,000) vs. the peak of wave 2 ($69,000) did not differ much.
However, this cycle might have:
📍The peak of wave 1 for #BTC、 around 12x-13x.000$; peak of wave 2 around 16x-18x.000$, and whether there will be a wave 3 remains uncertain... If there is, it might be around 14x-15x.000$...
The reason why this wave 1 peak (if any) will be much lower than wave 2 peak is that after forming the peak, there will be a strong dump to convince investors that this cycle only has one peak, one wave, and it ended at that moment (come early, leave early)
Everyone rushes to sell off. Then the market resumes its upward trend and sets a new ATH. People start to FOMO again, just like the period from $64,000 down to $29,000 (wave 1 in May-June-July/2021) and then back up to $69,000 (wave 2 in November/2021). The possibility is there, the rebound is real, but:
📍During this correlation, this period will be quite intense, causing some who bought at low prices to not necessarily sell at high prices. Some who sold at high prices still end up closing early because the price continues to rise (the age-old law - similar to when BTC dropped to $15,000, people knew it would eventually rise back to $69,000, but how many actually bought and held on, similarly this time)
Early sellers chase the market, newcomers continue to FOMO and buy more...
📍Until it reaches a certain limit (e.g., $18x.000$), there will be a real dump. After that, most people will think it's really a downtrend, but who knows, the game might not be over yet.
BTC will dump heavily from ~$18x.000$. After people get frustrated, it will pump again (maybe even a wave 3). Wave 3 will be higher than wave 1 ($12x.000$); but lower than wave 2 ($18x.000$), so wave 3 is likely to be in between (around $14x-15x.000$ for instance)
To create expectations for a super cycle (until the end of 2026,27 - BTC will reach $500-1000.000$ ... or it will never downtrend or have a crypto winter as most people who bought the peak in 2021 thought...
=> Then... it's really a dump, a real downtrend. Estimated by the time frame, I think BTC will have a light wave:
📍~6-7/2024 (with a stronger wave in Q4/2024)
📍Peak of wave 2 in Q1/2025 (could be in February 2025)
📍Peak of wave 3 in Q3/2025 (could be in July 2025).
The projections above cannot be 100% accurate to the day or month because market trends are always surprising. Not to mention, the halving this season is one month earlier, so the price trajectory may differ by a few months compared to before. However, looking at the overall market trend, we can determine a relative level. My personal conclusion is:
📍Wave 1 of #BTC in Q4/2024
📍Wave 2 of #BTC in Q1/2025
📍Wave 3 of #BTC in Q3/2025
=> ATH BTC still runs faster than the previous cycle by ~4-5 months. Ponzi games still might scrape the last bit until the end of 2025 (could be restaking, #GameFi ... for instance, but let's not dwell on it for now)
In 2021:
Total 3 ran after BTC for about 10-40 days - calculated from when BTC reached $64k and $69k in 2021, assuming an average timeframe of 1 month:
Every time BTC creates a peak -> sideways and then ~ after 1 month -> #Altcoins👀🚀 Season
📍The first time will be around December 2021 (if BTC pumps in November 2024 - delayed by ~1 month compared to the #BTC wave)
📍The second time will be around March 2025 (if #BTC pumps in February 2025 - delayed by ~1 month compared to the #BTC wave)
📍The third time will be around August 2025 (if #BTC pumps in July 2025 - delayed by ~1 month compared to the #BTC wave)
In 2021, most Altcoins reached ATH after wave 1 of BTC ($64,000). This time, I worry that it might only be during the last wave of BTC that Altcoins will truly experience significant growth. I might not be comfortable holding 100% of my portfolio until then.
From there, people plan to partially close out my positions (the coins that have seen significant gains, which they're currently holding fully in altcoins) around August 2024 or December 2024 (if the profit criteria are met as projected and depending on the market's heat at that time, combined with monitoring various indicators like BTC.D; Total 3...). Currently, they're still leaning towards the end of 2024, and if there's a surge in July-August 2024 but it hasn't reached the target, they will also skip that phase.
Next, experts will fully cash out by March 2025. Of course, also pay attention to the market capitalization of each coin in the portfolio, how the money flows between ecosystems, to make the final decision. Regardless of how many waves or how much BTC rises, try to exit midway through the cycle instead of waiting until the end to cash out (accepting missing out on the final wave if the target is already met).
The assessment above may not be 100% accurate, but it's their personal perspective and they will stick to it when making decisions. Regarding the timeframes (e.g., when mentioning February 2025, it might not necessarily be in February, it could be January or March, but will focus on the first quarter, considering other factors like the price range of BTC at that time).
Of course, experts won't cash out if BTC is only at $70,000 at that time, it should be at least $120,000 and the altcoins they hold should have multiplied 8-10 times from the current price, meaning x20-25 from the initial investment, and the same goes for the next wave, need to consider other factors and only make a final decision if all criteria are satisfied.
📍After cashing out and holding stable coins, if BTC, ETH undergo a sharp dump (at least 50% drop) afterward, reinvest 30% of the capital, if the price then rises significantly, take profit immediately, but if it continues to drop by 70% from the peak, go all in. If as planned, manage to buy BTC during the dump from the second peak, hold until Q4/2025 or sell if the profit exceeds 50% (expecting x2). If it doesn't meet expectations, consider the BTC, ETH purchased for the next season and be prepared to hold. Then... wait patiently for a new cycle to begin.
📍Currently, some opinions suggest that the uptrend will end early in late 2024 (because BTC broke the previous peak before the halving and earlier than the previous cycle by 9 months). Experts also think the uptrend will end early, but not more than 1 year early <-> because the market needs enough time to absorb the money flow, digest a lot of macroeconomic news released in 2025, enough time to attract new retail investors, enough time to paint big patterns. So, although this cycle may end earlier, it won't end too soon.
📍Some views suggest it will end in November 2025, while others suggest it will end in Q1/2025. I personally think this season will be more vibrant and FOMO-inducing than 2021. The game is more diverse, with more frequent pumps and dumps, more waves, more interesting, but also more difficult to play, because now the market manipulators are at a much higher level than before. We can't make perfect predictions or decisions, just hope to achieve relative success. Therefore, analyzing trends is just a part, but analysis can be right or wrong, the most important thing is to cash out when the target is just right, not necessarily at the market peak.
Additional coincidence:
📍In December 2017, BTC reached its peak and then in December 2020, it broke the previous peak.
📍Similarly: In March 2021, BTCV reached its peak for the first time (at 64k) and then in March 2024, BTC broke the previous peak (at 64k and 69k).
-> All spaced exactly 3 years apart. Will there be another coincidence regarding the peak time? If we reason based on the above points:
📍From December 2017 (peak of 2017) to November 2021 (peak of 2021) took 47 months.
-> From November 2021 + 47 months will be October 2025.
📍In 2018, BTC bottomed out in December 2018. The time gap between the 2017 peak and the bottom was exactly 1 year.
📍In 2022, BTC bottomed out in November 2022. The time gap between the 2021 peak and the bottom was exactly 1 year.
So, looking at the next season, whenever BTC reaches its peak, we can infer that the bottom of BTC will be about 1 year later. Because the above evidence is not sufficient to deduce the peak time, only when BTC truly peaks can we deduce the bottom time. So, for now, this reasoning hasn't been thoroughly explored.
The article is long but still not enough, to dig up all the data from the ATL 2019 to the ATH 2021, then compare it with the ATL 2022 to the current ATH, I don't know when it will ever end.
Let's stop here, if there are any major fluctuations leading to changes in current views and plans, I will add them in the comments and try not to edit to maintain the authenticity of the views from now until the end of the cycle.
