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Bitcoin Bounces Above $70K: Unpacking the Factors Behind the Surge
According to Cointelegraph: With Bitcoin soaring back above $70,000, the bulls seem to have regained control. Notwithstanding prior negative spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) flows, could this hint at a new all-time high? There are three key reasons behind the recent surge in Bitcoin.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
1. Negation of Last Week's Negative ETF flows: Following a record period of inflows, investors withdrew more than $942 million last week, culminating in the first negative flow into crypto investment products. This sentiment was primarily centred on Bitcoin, accounting for 96% of these outflows. CoinShares attributes this to a drawdown in crypto prices. Despite this, Bitcoin managed to bounce back.
2. Spike in Bitcoin "Age Consumed" Metric: Bitcoin's Age Consumed metric, that tracks the movement of previously idle BTC coins, has seen a significant surge; with dormant BTC addresses moving BTC surging to its highest in over two years. This suggests an influx of erstwhile dormant Bitcoin back into circulation, hinting at an increase in network activity, which often precedes price volatility.
Bitcoin transaction volume. Source: Santiment
3. Possible Shift Towards an Altcoin Season: While Bitcoin has outperformed most altcoins over the past week, several large-cap altcoins have produced remarkable gains. Polkadot, Avalanche, and Litecoin have witnessed net inflows, according to the CoinShares report. Additionally, analysts have noted that overbought conditions in the altcoin market could lead to a potential altcoin rally following a decline in Bitcoin's market dominance.
Total altcoins market capitalization. Source: TradingView
At the time of publication, despite Bitcoin dominating 51.77% of the market, the prospect of an 'altseason' gathers momentum as the total crypto market cap hovers at $1.191 trillion, as per CoinMarketCap. However, for a true altseason to be declared, 75% of the top 50 coins would need to outperform Bitcoin over 90 days as per the Altcoin Season Index by Blockchain Center, which is not the case currently.
Altcoin season index. Source: Blockchain Center
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
1. Negation of Last Week's Negative ETF flows: Following a record period of inflows, investors withdrew more than $942 million last week, culminating in the first negative flow into crypto investment products. This sentiment was primarily centred on Bitcoin, accounting for 96% of these outflows. CoinShares attributes this to a drawdown in crypto prices. Despite this, Bitcoin managed to bounce back.
2. Spike in Bitcoin "Age Consumed" Metric: Bitcoin's Age Consumed metric, that tracks the movement of previously idle BTC coins, has seen a significant surge; with dormant BTC addresses moving BTC surging to its highest in over two years. This suggests an influx of erstwhile dormant Bitcoin back into circulation, hinting at an increase in network activity, which often precedes price volatility.
Bitcoin transaction volume. Source: Santiment
3. Possible Shift Towards an Altcoin Season: While Bitcoin has outperformed most altcoins over the past week, several large-cap altcoins have produced remarkable gains. Polkadot, Avalanche, and Litecoin have witnessed net inflows, according to the CoinShares report. Additionally, analysts have noted that overbought conditions in the altcoin market could lead to a potential altcoin rally following a decline in Bitcoin's market dominance.
Total altcoins market capitalization. Source: TradingView
At the time of publication, despite Bitcoin dominating 51.77% of the market, the prospect of an 'altseason' gathers momentum as the total crypto market cap hovers at $1.191 trillion, as per CoinMarketCap. However, for a true altseason to be declared, 75% of the top 50 coins would need to outperform Bitcoin over 90 days as per the Altcoin Season Index by Blockchain Center, which is not the case currently.
Altcoin season index. Source: Blockchain Center
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