According to Cointelegraph: Renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, has expressed skepticism about Bitcoin's market dominance returning to its previous cycle highs of 70%. In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Cowen shared his belief that Bitcoin's dominance will likely peak at 60%, potentially as early as September or by December 2024 at the latest.
Cowen's analysis comes as Bitcoin's dominance—measured by its market capitalization relative to the entire cryptocurrency market—stood at 57.36% at the time of reporting. This marks a 4.25% increase since mid-July, according to data from TradingView. Despite this uptick, Cowen remains doubtful that Bitcoin will reclaim its December 2020 dominance levels, when it soared to 70.23% before the asset's price surged by approximately 220% within three months.
"I don’t think it is going back up to 70%," Cowen stated. "My target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%."
During major altcoin seasons, such as the one witnessed in 2021, Bitcoin's dominance typically declines but gradually recovers as the market stabilizes. However, Cowen believes this cycle is different. He pointed out that while Bitcoin may reach its peak dominance, it will likely fall short of past levels due to the growth potential of Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Kaleo also echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Bitcoin dominance may have already peaked. In an Aug. 9 post on X, Kaleo told their 643,700 followers that they were "fairly confident" this cycle had reached its top for Bitcoin dominance. "Didn't quite hit the 60% I was expecting—which is a good thing because that would have been painful," Kaleo added, indicating that the real alt season might begin once Bitcoin dominance drops below 50%.
Cowen further emphasized the importance of considering stablecoin dominance, particularly Tether (USDT), when evaluating Bitcoin's market position. He recommends combining Bitcoin dominance with Tether dominance to gauge the overall "flight to safety" in the market. As of the latest data, the combined dominance of Bitcoin and USDT stands at 63.07%, a level reminiscent of June 2019, just before the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin's dominance has shown signs of strength, analysts like Cowen and Kaleo suggest that the market landscape has evolved, making a return to 70% dominance unlikely. Instead, they anticipate a final move towards 60% dominance, with Ethereum and other altcoins poised to capture a more significant share of the market.
