According to Decrypt, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has increased his estimation for the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved in January to 95%, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision window approaches this week. Previously, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated the odds of a Bitcoin ETF being approved in January at 90%. Balchunas' updated estimation comes in response to a tweet by fellow Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart, who was speculating on the unlikely scenarios in which the SEC could reject the current slate of applications.
Crypto betting market Polymarket participants are more cautious, placing the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by January 15 at 82%. Bitcoin ETF hopefuls have until Monday morning to submit last-minute revisions to their applications, with the SEC having an open window until January 10 to approve multiple applications simultaneously. The first stage in the approval process would be the SEC signing off on 19b-4 filings by the exchanges planning to list the ETFs, followed by the approval of the issuers' S-1 applications. If the SEC approves a Bitcoin ETF, Balchunas believes the asset class could be worth as much as $10 billion in its first year.
