Looking ahead, progress toward a US strategic BTC reserve (SBR) remains pivotal to BTC breaking new highs. However, the Trump administration will need Congress, the Federal Reserve, US Treasury Department to approve BTC as a strategic reserve asset.

If approved, the US government would become a BTC HODLER, mitigating oversupply risk. The US government has a 198,109 BTC stockpile ($19.13 billion), exposing the crypto market to potential sales.

However, until SBR progress accelerates, BTC price trends will hinge on ETF demand, US economic data, and Fed policy signals. A rebound in spot ETF market inflows, boosted by US data and Fed rate cut bets, may drive BTC above $100k. However, upbeat US data and ETF outflows could further pressure BTC, potentially dragging BTC below $90k.

Key US data in the week ahead include consumer confidence and jobless claims.

Dive deeper into the influence of spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts to manage crypto-related risks.

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