$NEIRO 's Current Status and the Detailed Technical Comments I Promised
+ Bonus Mini Education for People of All Experiences
👉 Today, I shared my NEIRO Analysis but left my comment for later and asked you for your opinions first. Thank you to everyone who participated. 🙏
👀 Excuse me if I start off rudely, but if you think there is a downward trend in this bigger image, please see an eye doctor or your monitor may be upside down, please turn your monitor straight. 😅
🤭You may also have it reversed from the Tradingview canvas settings. Invert scale =)
Jokes aside, here I will be reviewing spot buy/sell, hold, leveraged trading setups with 4 different approaches from an inexperienced/less experienced person's view to much more experienced traders' view. 🤝
Therefore, this article will not only be a situation analysis, but also an education that will appeal to people with very different experiences. Hope it'll be useful to you. 🙏
⭐1) INEXPERIENCED SPOT BUYER / HOLDER VIEW
👉You are an inexperienced person and you bought it from a random place without knowing and you are at a loss for the moment. What should you do?
First of all, such a buy order is already wrong, but since you are an inexperienced person, you need to learn at least this:
- How much loss can I handle at most and should I exit the position and sell what I have?
Yes, there is no point in waiting at a loss forever. Even if you cannot get help from anyone with more experience, you should at least think about when you should stop the loss and exit the position and determine an amount.
For example, in spot trade, this may be 15% for you and if my 100 USD drops to 85 USD, you should be able to say that I will cut my losses here and look for other opportunities. This amount may be lower or higher for someone else, but if it is too low, it is possible to stop every time and always leave with a loss due to the volatility of cryptocurrencies.
✨Example:
You saw Neiro rose x2 in 2-3 days and you FOMOed and decided to buy at the TOP (1)
You’re holding and watching your token, it rises more slowly but OK no problem it is still higher than your cost. (2)
You don’t know what to do and where to sell, still holding. Next day it fell %16+ from the top and is now lower than your cost . (3)
The price reached the breakeven point with the level you bought during the day and started to move downwards. You panicked out of fear and decided to sell, and as luck would have it, you sold at the lowest point of the candle wick, where the loss was the greatest.
At this point, your loss would have been ~10% compared to the price you bought it at. You can think of it as 10 USD in 100 USD.
✨Example:
You could have decided at first that you could handle a 15% loss, and then chosen to hold it with the expectation that it would correct and continue to rise, which is a logical choice.
In addition, the last price drop brought you to the breakeven point by the close of the day and you do not have any losses at the moment.
What should have been done in this case? If the next day's close is below this daily close, it would have been logical to make a stop loss at this point. Now let's see what the result of this decision is?
You made a logical decision and wanted to see if the downtrend would continue and the next day's close confirmed it. It closed lower. At this level, it was ~18% below your purchase cost and you decided to stop loss. So you closed the trade at $100 with a loss of $18 and are looking for new opportunities at $82.
- So what is the loss of who continues to hold without knowing what to do?
~42% loss and lost almost half of his/her investment and still waiting.
Therefore, with the decision you would have made at the beginning, you would have protected yourself from a much greater loss in exchange for a smaller insurance amount (I am making an analogy).
- Does it make sense to sell and cut a loss at this stage?
Why didn't you ask this question until now? 😕 Stop now, don't rush and continue reading please.
⭐2) LESS EXPERIENCED SPOT BUYER / HOLDER VIEW
Now you are a little more experienced than newbies but still don’t know much about technical analysis. You just learned a few things about trends and trend lines.
We continue by assuming that we bought at the same point (1).
Of course, this time, since you are a little more experienced, you may have seen that there was a downtrend in the chart before and that it was broken with a voluminous candle.
However, let's assume that being less experienced made you mistaken and let's not notice this early by going to lower time frames at the beginning of the movement and let's buy at the same point from quite high.
OK, no problem since you’re a less experienced one.
✨Example:
You immediately examined the last movement where you bought and drew a support line by connecting the low points of the candles representing the rise, and you promised yourself that if there was a daily close below this support line, I would stop my loss and sell at that point.
With the daily close at point (2), the price remained below the trend and you kept your promise to yourself and closed the position / sold your holdings. The price is at breakeven (even above it at a micro level) and you closed your position with neither profit nor loss and started looking for new opportunities.
✨Example:
You made a logical decision and wanted to see if the downtrend would continue and the next day's close confirmed it. It closed lower. At this level, it was ~18% below your purchase cost and you decided to stop loss. So you closed the trade at $100 with a loss of $18 and are looking for new opportunities at $82.
Again, it was a decision where you got the same result as your inexperienced self above, but it was still good because again you were saved from a greater loss.
✨Example:
You drew a trend support on the daily chart and saw that it bounced from here every time. Therefore, since you were at point (1), you watched the price and thought that it could exhibit a similar movement when it came to this support again and when you saw the first bullish candle from here, you decided to buy and if it closed below the trend support, you decided to exit the trade.
You saw that the daily close was made under the trend line and you closed your position with the first candle close. You avoided a bigger loss with a 10% loss.
✨Example:
You did not close your position with the first candle closing below the trend line and wanted to wait for confirmation the next day.
You continued to wait because the bullish candle came the next day. The second daily candle touched the trend support with a pullback again but could not win here and closed again as a decline under the support.
You saw this and decided to close your position. You escaped a bigger loss with only a ~5% loss.
⭐3) TRADITIONAL TECHNICAL ANALYST / SWING TRADER VIEW
You have learned basic technical analysis and now you have learned that rising highs and rising lows occur in an uptrend, and falling highs and falling lows occur in a downtrend.
You see that the price is making a very rapid rise here and you logically expect it to make a good correction. So you follow the chart until you see where the top will form.
You wanted to simplify the chart in order to grasp the general view and to be able to specify the main trend, and you opened the weekly chart. Here you see that the chart makes rising highs and rising lows, and you decide that the main trend of the chart is up/bullish.
You marked the last High and last Low levels and drew the boundaries of the swing in the main trend.
Now you know that the main trend will continue to be bullish unless the previous Low, the red dashed line level, is broken and a weekly close is made below it. If this level is broken permanently, you will call it bearish.
✨Example:
You have returned to the daily chart and are at the same point. Now that you are more experienced in technical analysis, you have decided that this is not a suitable level to buy and you have postponed the purchase. Even if the price continues in an upward bullish trend, you expect it to correct and reach more suitable levels.
When you divide the swing range into two equal parts, you know that the upper half is the Premium area, which is the expensive area, and the lower half is the Discount area, which is the cheap area.
You are aware that you can divide the Premium and Discount areas into two and apply the same rule in order to make even better buy/sell decisions.
In order to find a good buy level in the discount zone, you used the Fibonacci Retracement tool to look at the levels at which the price had completed the correction and reversed in the previous swing movements.
From a little lower of FIB 0.786 (78.6%)
From a little above of FIB 0.786 (78.6%)
You used the same for the current swing and now you see that the current price level is below the FIB 0.786 and you still haven't noticed a reversal.
How to confirm the reversal? The simplest technique is to mark small swings in the internal structure and see that the new swing movement makes a new Higher High (HH). Although this does not guarantee that the correction in the external structure (main trend) is over, it will give you a preliminary signal for a reversal.
Lower time frame traders will also use these reversals, but for swing trades/spot trades you want to see multiple HHs and HLs forming in the internal structure.
Result? You didn't make any purchases and you are still waiting. So you have no loss or profit.
⭐4) PRICE ACTION ANALYST / SWING TRADER VIEW
You saw that the price was in a bullish trend on the daily chart and confirmed the new HH and HL. You marked the last swing range. According to the price action approach, you determined that you were in a correction movement and determined the potential levels where the correction would end and the reversal would occur (supply-demand zones, breaker block, mitigation block, order block, FTR/FTB, Flag Limits etc...)
Then you started waiting for reversal structures with price action candlestick formations.
You know that it would not be appropriate to enter a transaction without seeing a reversal structure.
At the same time, if the candlestick body closes below the previous HL level, which is the bottom of the swing, the main trend will have reversed, that is, turned bearish, before you could find a buy/long trading opportunity. No matter, you look for better buy levels or other opportunities for spot or if you are trading with leverage, you start preparing your setup and waiting to open a short trade at suitable levels.
In addition, you know about FVG (Fair Value Gap) and Imbalance topics and remember a pattern that is suitable with your long setup in mind.
⭐5) PRICE ACTION ANALYST / DAY TRADER / SCALP TRADER VIEWS
We looked at the main trend on the daily time frame and the lower time frame on 4H, this is the case. When we go down to lower time frames and apply similar processes to them, we can construct dozens of buy/sell levels and long/short setups.
🎁WHAT ELSE?
There are many technical approaches from advanced price action topics to liquidation concepts, from ICT approach to Smart Money Buy/Sell Models, from Elliot Wave Principles to Harmonic models, etc. and there are different trading methods within them.
If we were to talk about all of them, it would not be enough to just write articles, or even write a book, it would be necessary to create an encyclopedia set consisting of many books.
Still, I tried to talk about many different methods and approaches. At the end of the day, the most important thing is to know what you are doing and why you are expecting what you are expecting. You can apply what I have mentioned to all the coins/tokens you are interested in or researching.
I hope what I have explained has been useful and that I have provided some perspective.
Thank you for your time.
