BTC price 'base case' now $140K: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin sees a fresh wave of short-term bullishness as BTC price discovery returns in time for Christmas.
Bitcoin launches into the week before Christmas with new all-time highs and sky-high BTC price targets.
A classic “big week” for Bitcoin BTC $104,806 and crypto is forecast as price discovery returns in time for the start of the TradFi trading week.
BTC price targets include $140,000 and higher for the coming weeks and months.
The Fed is tipped to enact a 0.25% interest rate cut in a potential fresh supportive move for crypto and risk assets.
US President-elect Donald Trump appears as determined as ever to make a strategic Bitcoin reserve a reality.
Bitcoin open interest hits fresh all-time highs, but funding rates stay manageable.
Bitcoin traders braced for volatile week
Bitcoin is conjuring excitement everywhere as the week begins with new all-time highs in place.
Around the latest weekly close, which was its highest ever, BTC/USD spiked to $106,533 on Bitstamp — a new record, as confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
For market participants, the outlook could hardly be any better.
“It’s going to be a big week,” Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, said in a post on X, employing what has become a classic crypto industry phase.
Some were caught by surprise as the highs appeared. Bitcoin traditionally trades sideways or down in the days prior to United States Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
“Short liquidations target hit,” trader CrypNuevo wrote in one of his latest market updates.
“Didn't expect it that fast at all, especially before weekly candle close so couldn't position in futures for this one.”
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put net crypto liquidations for the 24 hours to the time of writing at over $300 million.
Uploading long-term analysis to X, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, said that timing is likely everything. Mid-December, a chart shows, historically contains Bitcoin’s key directional moves.
“Historically, we have seen MACRO moves on the Bitcoin chart at or around Dec 17th. If this pattern continues, I’m looking for 1 of 2 moves. Either a breakdown that signals the top is in, or a breakout to the next leg up,” he said.
“With a FED rate cut baked in for the Dec 18th meeting, I think we'll see a breakout, however, I'm going to sit on my hands and allow candles to develop to gain some clarity.”
BTC price targets see 50% more upsideBTC price targets are far from neutral, even in the short term, as traders raise expectations for end-of-year BTC price performance and beyond.
Just last week, $110,000 formed a popular round-number goal, but as time goes on, levels are getting higher.
In a dedicated X thread on Dec. 15, analytics account Bitcoindata21 called $140,000 a “base case” for Bitcoin’s first major cooling-off period to begin.
“Bitcoin trends toward $140k+ by mid january for a short term top,” it said.
“My onchain indicator (upper orange line) at $128,693 and rising by $500 a day, should get to $140k in early January. Combine that with the pi cycle line in blue, in a similar area.”
Bitcoindata21 flagged several indicators that should all hit classic “top” areas at around the same time, coinciding with the $140,000 target.
Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) metric — something already on the radar — still has room to grow before profitability of hodled coins becomes unusually large.
Other sources see $150,000 as a useful guide for the coming months.
Fed rate cut assumed as 2025 picture darkensThe Fed is in the spotlight more than ever this week as officials meet to decide on interest-rate changes.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene on Dec. 18 and is widely expected to enact a 0.25% rate cut.
Inflation data remains troublesome for the Fed, with labor market weakness combined with some price indexes beating forecasts — potentially creating an environment known as “stagflation.”
“Fed and market-implied measures of inflation are now all above the Fed’s 2% target,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X thread on the topic.
“We are at risk of a potential 1970s-style rebound in inflation into 2025/2026.”Kobeissi reported the latest findings from asset manager Apollo, which released a warning that the Fed could conversely begin to raise rates again in 2025.
“This week, the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points again as the labor market weakens,” Kobeissi continued.
“We believe stagflation is coming in 2025, the Fed's biggest nightmare.”The Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is due for release after the FOMC on Dec. 20, with initial jobless claims coming a day prior.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool on Dec. 16 gave almost unanimous market odds of a 0.25% rate cut — 97.1%.
Trump Bitcoin reserve talk grows louderThe topic on everyone’s lips in the third week of December is not the new BTC price highs, but how high Bitcoin may go next.
Thanks to new reports that US President-elect Donald Trump plans to create a form of national Bitcoin reserve, market fever and sky-high BTC price predictions are firmly in play.
As Cointelegraph reported, a move into Bitcoin could begin on Trump’s first day in office next month.
“There’s potential to use a day-one executive order to purchase Bitcoin,” Jack Mallers, CEO of Bitcoin payment company Strike, told podcast host Tim Pool on Dec. 14.
“It wouldn't be the size and scale of 1 million coins but it would be a significant position.”The same day, Forbes released a prediction showing BTC/USD at over $500,000 due to Trump’s potential plan being enacted at scale.
“We’re going to do something great with crypto because we don’t want China or anybody else — not just China but others are embracing it and we want to be the head,” he told CNBC in an interview last week that has since made multiple rounds on social media.
Beyond Trump, Michael Saylor, CEO of business intelligence firm MicroStrategy, made fresh waves over the weekend by hinting that he had purchased even more BTC for his firm’s Bitcoin treasury.
“I will see you on the moon,” he wrote in a typical X post.
Saylor has made various BTC purchases in recent weeks, with markets initially selling off as a result before rebounding.
Open interest beats records as funding stays coolBitcoin open interest (OI) has hit new all-time highs as the market returns to price discovery.
Data from CoinGlass puts the Bitcoin futures OI tally at $67.38 billion as of Dec. 16 — up $4 billion in the past 24 hours.
OI represents the combined value held in Bitcoin futures contracts, the aggregate total of long and short positions.
Spikes in OI can cause market volatility to increase as traders make ever larger bets on price action and see their positions unravel when the market moves the other way.
CoinGlass further shows only slightly elevated funding rates for Bitcoin and altcoins, with largest global exchange Binance a notable exception for the former. For trader Jelle, the landscape is stable:
“Funding rates remain at very healthy levels. Nobody on my timeline seems to care,” he told X followers on Dec. 16, referring to the lack of overall attention being given to what are still much cooler conditions than during many previous price moves.
“Pretty sure this goes a lot higher than many people think.”
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