More than 1 year ago (September 05 2023, see chart below), we published the following Bitcoin (BTCUSD) idea, which very illustratively presented the potential course of the new Bull Cycle:
As you can see, BTC managed to trade an entire year rising within this green Arc pattern and always below the Cyclical Pivot trend-line that emerged from the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle.
We made the last update on this chart last August (20 2024), where we called the end of the 5-month correction since March and the start of the new Phase (final Parabolic Rally) of the Bull Cycle.
The key hold of the 1W MA50
The key for that call was the fact that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held twice during the August sell-off and supported. As you can see, on all of BTC Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has been supporting post Halving and never broke until after the Top and the start of the new Bear Cycle.
Symmetry of pre and post-Having
Given that historically the Bull Cycle lasts post-Halving almost the time it lasted from the bottom to the Halving, we should expect its top around December 2025 - January 2026 and if it is on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line, then it could be as high as 400k.
However, even on a less optimistic scenario where it lasts 1064 days (152 weeks) from the Bottom (not counting FTX crash), like the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, we can expect a peak a little over $200000 on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line.
The 1W RSI series of Tops
It is important to notice that the 1W RSI is recovering from the overbought volatility correction, having dropped from a massively overbought 88.50 High (March 04) to a practically bearish 45.00 Low (September 02). As this chart shows, BTC tends to top on levels similar to the first 1W RSI of the Cycle, so there is still a lot of way to go before it tops, especially if it follows the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, which had four almost symmetrical such Tops.
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