Bitcoin’s recent climb to a record high of $99,800, followed by a dip to $93,000, has left market participants questioning whether the bull market is nearing its peak. Research from Cryptoquant, available on cryptoquant.com, and its analysts suggest the answer is no, pointing to onchain indicators that signal the potential for further gains, possibly beyond $100,000.
According to Cryptoquant’s latest report, bitcoin’s current valuation metrics reveal that the cryptocurrency has yet to reach the levels of overvaluation typical of bull market tops. A key metric, bitcoin’s realized price valuation, places a price target of $146,000 as the potential upper limit in this cycle.
“Bitcoin’s price top target is currently at $146k from a realized price valuation perspective,” Cryptoquant’s researchers state. “This price band has acted as a top for the price of Bitcoin in previous cycles, like in January 2021.”
Additionally, Cryptoquant strategists highlight the role of new and retail investors in identifying market tops. Currently, new bitcoin holders account for slightly over 50% of the total capital invested in the cryptocurrency—well below the levels seen at previous peaks, such as 90% in 2017 and 80% in 2021. Retail investors, another traditional marker of overheated markets, have been reducing their holdings since October, with a net decrease of 41,000 BTC.
In contrast, larger investors have added 130,000 BTC to their portfolios during the same period. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, another key metric tracked by Cryptoquant, remains firmly in the bull phase. Despite the intensifying bull trend, the indicator remains far from the overheated zone that historically precedes market corrections. This aligns with observations that current market dynamics are primarily driven by institutional and long-term investors, rather than speculative retail activity.
While the report acknowledges short-term volatility, citing the rapid rise in Microstrategy’s stock price as an indicator of potential market corrections, the overarching sentiment from Cryptoquant analysts is that the bitcoin market remains strong. The absence of speculative frenzy and the active accumulation by large holders further support this conclusion.
