Bitcoin (BTC) faced an 8.2% pullback over four days, dropping to $91,315 after its all-time high of $99,609 on Nov. 22. This decline, which led to $250 million in liquidations of leveraged long positions, raises questions about Bitcoin’s ability to reach the critical $100,000 milestone. However, key indicators suggest the correction may be a temporary pause rather than a bearish reversal.
Market Context: A Healthy Correction?
Bitcoin’s recent dip follows a sharp 22.6% rally between Nov. 9 and Nov. 13, which triggered $342 million in long liquidations. According to CoinGlass, this pullback highlights over-leveraged positions among derivatives traders rather than a fundamental shift in market sentiment.
Miners’ Selling Pressure:
Bitcoin (BTC) miners, holding approximately 1.8 million BTC worth $166.3 billion, have increased selling activity, offloading around 2,500 BTC ($231 million) daily. Despite this, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded robust daily inflows of $670 million between Nov. 18 and Nov. 22, counteracting miner sell-offs.
Key Indicators: Investor Sentiment and Institutional Demand
Long-Term Holders:
Data from Glassnode shows long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders are contributing to selling pressure, similar to behavior seen in late March 2024. Back then, profit-taking after failed attempts to surpass $73,500 led to a two-month correction, with Bitcoin (BTC) bottoming at $60,830.
Institutional Buys:
Despite the correction, institutional demand remains strong. On Nov. 25, MicroStrategy announced a $5.4 billion Bitcoin (BTC) purchase, signaling continued confidence in BTC’s long-term potential. Other institutional players, such as MetaPlanet in Japan and Semler Scientific in the US, are also mirroring this strategy.
Potential Bottom: $82,500?
If historical trends persist, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price may bottom at $82,500, marking a 17% retracement from its all-time high. This aligns with corrections observed during previous bull runs. However, this time, sustained spot ETF inflows and corporate adoption provide stronger support levels, making a deeper downturn less likely.
Options and Derivatives Data: Resilient Market Sentiment
Options data from Laevitas shows the 25% delta skew, a critical indicator of market sentiment, remains neutral. Both put (sell) and call (buy) options are trading at similar premiums, indicating neither excessive fear nor optimism among traders.
Outlook: Can Bitcoin Still Hit $100K?
While Bitcoin's momentum has temporarily slowed, strong institutional demand, growing corporate adoption, and consistent ETF inflows signal that the bull market remains intact. Analysts suggest the recent dip may serve as a "final flush" before a rally toward $100,000.
With resilient onchain metrics and solid institutional interest, Bitcoin’s chances of hitting $100,000 by year-end remain viable, provided the broader market sentiment and inflows maintain their strength, according to Cointelegraph.
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