Research by GMB LABS
1. The Power of RWAs
Let’s start with real-world assets (RWAs) and tokenization, concepts that have gained massive traction recently. RWAs aim to bring real assets, from bonds to dollars, onto the blockchain, enhancing liquidity and streamlining processes. While some divide RWAs into tangible (real estate, gold) and intangible assets (deeds, certificates), I see financial assets—bonds, dollars, and funds already digitized—as the real game-changer here.
In reality, very little of a wealthy individual’s portfolio exists as physical cash. Most assets are digital entries, and assets like stocks have long moved from paper certificates to digital records. Even in crypto, where there’s no physical backing, tokenizing these digital financial assets makes the most sense. For me, RWAs aren’t about tokenizing physical assets—they’re about moving existing digital financial assets to blockchain for greater added value.
2. Institutional Market Shift
The current market cycle is a different animal—it's institution-driven. Since Bitcoin and Ethereum have been recognized as “assets” through ETFs, institutional inflows are driving unprecedented momentum. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, now has a net asset value of over $34 billion. Following Trump’s election, Ethereum ETFs have also surged, positioning Ethereum as the go-to for institutions, or as I like to say, “the Solana for retail, Ethereum for institutions.”
While institutional focus is on ETF-backed BTC and ETH for now, I think RWAs are the next frontier. BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink has repeatedly emphasized the potential of RWAs, making this an area that’s definitely worth our attention.
3. Ondo Finance: Why This Project Stands Out
If you haven’t already, check out “Ondo Finance Research 1 | 2” by a former teammate for a foundational understanding of the project. But here’s my take on why I’m bullish on Ondo and its potential to hit a $10B market cap.
My criteria for selecting a project:
Digital Asset Utilization: Focuses on bonds, stocks, and dollars that already exist as digital assets.
Major Exchange Listing: Listed on major exchanges, giving it strong liquidity.
Direct BlackRock Association: Has direct ties to BlackRock.
Looking at CoinGecko’s RWA list, Ethena and Wormhole are noteworthy, with Ethena developing a BlackRock-backed stablecoin and Wormhole collaborating with Securitize. But Ondo stands out for its strong BlackRock association, listing on major exchanges, and tokenization of assets like U.S. bonds and bank deposits to generate yield.
4. Token Unlock Dynamics
While Ondo’s fundamentals are strong, let’s look at token unlocks. An additional 135% of the current supply will be unlocked in January, which will bring the total circulating supply to around 3.5 billion. Historically, token unlock events have been tricky in a bearish environment, as we saw with PYTH and TIA. However, bullish market conditions can shift this dynamic, as we’ve seen with recent unlocks that fared better. With the current bullish trend, I think Ondo’s upcoming unlock may not impact it as significantly.
In the 2021 bull market, assets like AXS peaked at a $10.5B market cap and SAND at $6.8B. Given institutional backing in this cycle, I’m confident that Ondo Finance can reach $10B in market cap—again, not FDV.
Thanks for sticking through this deep dive! Stay sharp and good luck in the market.
$ONDO #RWA
